By Ajay Kaul: It nearly led to the fall of the UPA government but the Indo-US nuclear deal is now set on its course with the opposing Left parties off the backof the ruling coalition.
The Left parties, if not anything else, managed to delay the operationalisation of the deal and as a result the government will have to rush to implement it. It is intriguing why the government kept on trying so far to persuade the Left parties on allowing it to proceed with the deal if it was really keen onpushing the deal. It is puzzling because the Left position with regard to the US is very well known to all.
Anti-Americanism is the basic tenets of the Left policiesand even if it were not a nuclear pact but an agreement in agriculture or any other harmless issue, the stand of the Communist parties would have been similar.It should have been clear to the Congress that Left parties will oppose the initiative unless they were hoping against hope that they would give upthe basis of their policies.In their efforts to persuade the Left parties, the government lost a lot of crucial time. Time is running out fast if the deal is to be operationalised during the tenure of the Bush administration.
The US has repeatedly said that the two steps — firming up of India-IAEA safeguards agreement and waiver from Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) — should be completed in Augusti f the deal is to be completed during the tenure of Bush administration. The deal is to be submitted to the US Congress for ‘up-down’ vote and it can take up the issue only till September when it breaks for recess to meet after completion of the Presidential poll process in January.
The deal can be pursued even after the Bush administration demits office but there is a risk factor of the new dispensation in Washington wanting to have a relook at the agreement. It may not happen but if it does, it can create a lot of problems for the initiative.
This is what the government is keen to avoid.
In its endeavour to operationalise the deal during the Bush administration’s term, government has launched full-blast campaign to lobby support among the IAEA and NSG members without losing any time.
Several ministers, including Kapil Sibal, Prithviraj Chavan, Anand Sharma, and top officials, including Shyam Saranand Shivshankar Menon, have been asked to travel to various countries to muster backing for the deal.
The US, with the influence it has in the world, will be doing its bit in persuading countries to support the initiative.
The first step will be clearance from the IAEA Board of Governors at its meeting on August one.
The India-IAEA safeguards agreement is expected to be approved by the Board even though Pakistan, which is a member of the Board, appears keen to block it.
Pakistan, like a jilted country, is putting spokes in the process as its request for a similar deal has been turned down by the US. In its efforts to sabotage the initiative, Pakistan has questioned the “hurry” to approve the safeguards agreement while raising certain technical queries, besides pointing out that the list of facilities to be safeguarded has not been annexed.
Pakistan’s efforts would not have much impact on theissue. At the most, it would mean lack of consensus and forcethe Board to go for a vote in which the initiative is expectedto get an overwhelming support as most of the member countriesare in favour of India being brought out of nuclear isolation.
Meanwhile, the US is talking to Pakistan to persuade it not to oppose the safeguards agreement.
While the initiative, in all probability, will sail through in the IAEA, the clearance from the 45- NSG is likely to be a tricky affair. The NSG, which has to grant waiver to allow India to have civil nuclear cooperation with the international community, works by consensus and even if anyone country expresses reservation, the initiative can be blocked.
This step is tricky because a number of countries, including Norway, Switzerland, The Netherlands and Sweden, have reservations to India being granted the exemption without it signing the NPT and CTBT.
Besides, there is China which could create problems. It has given indications that it will not be a stumbling block, but it has not made its stand clearly either publicly or even privately during its conversations with Indian leaders or officials.
This is making the Indian government keep its fingers crossed and hope for the best.
The issue of Indo-US nuclear deal has been the single issue that dominated the foreign policy of the country for the last two years with the Mahmohan Singh government putting a lot of stakes into it.
The country was witness to intense bickerings between the government and its Left allies over the last one year, triggering speculation about fall of government and mid-termpolls.
It has been vigorously debated as to whether the deal will contribute to the energy security of the country. Government has been insisting that the agreement would lead to a substantial jump in electricity production, eventually reducing the energy deficit drastically over the next four decades.
Justifying the deal, government’s argument is that the current power generation in the country is 1.45 lakh MW and by 2030, the electricity deficit would be 1.50 lakh MW which will increase to 4.12 lakh MW by 2050.
But, if nuclear power generation starts today, the power deficit will be reduced to 7,000 MW by 2050.
In the absence of nuclear energy, India will need to import 1.6 billion tonnes of good quality coal, a move that will engage all the ports of the country in only offloading of this commodity.
It has also been argued by the critics that the deal will tie India’s hands, making it impossible for the country to test a nuclear weapon if the need be.
While it is a fact that the US will end its cooperation with India if it tests a nuclear explosive, the 123 Agreement clearly spells out a cushion mechanism in case the situation comes to that stage.
The well-negotiated 123 agreement makes it clear that the cooperation cannot end immediately but a year after giving termination notice.
During this period, the two sides will hold consultations to assess whether there was any change in the security scenario that forced India to take an action due to which the cooperation was endangered.
There is also a provision for ensuring uninterrupted supplies of fuel and in case there is any disruption, “corrective measures” can be invoked.
While the debate on these aspects will continue, it is to be seen whether India, with the help of the US, can meet the time line to implement the deal by September.
--- PTI
