Key Points

It said the turmoil reflects deeper geopolitical shifts and unresolved domestic issues.

According to a report in Eurasia Review, the recurring protests and violence are unlikely to produce any positive change unless leaders learn from the region’s turbulent past.

“In South Asia, history shows that setting streets ablaze rarely leads to constructive change. Yet, the region continues to see such upheaval, which only worsens domestic politics in the affected countries. Bangladesh has been a ‘terrible witness,’ engulfed by unrest, and now Nepal faces its own crisis,” the report detailed.

It stressed that Nepal’s political landscape has been in constant flux. The country’s Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli, a four-term incumbent who remarked that "Indian Virus Looks More Lethal than Chinese, Italian," resigned amid escalating unrest following a strict social media ban.

The report emphasised that, in the wake of the ban, a youth movement calling itself the ‘Voice of Nepal’s Gen Z’ emerged, challenging the political elite, raising a critical question of whether a social media blackout alone ignited such a massive nationwide uprising.

“Nepal has long maintained close economic and social ties with India. Some even saw Nepal as an informal extension of India, although it has always remained sovereign. Recently, however, Nepal — like other Indian neighbours — has drifted strategically closer to China. Under Prime Minister Oli's leadership, Nepal’s foreign policy began to resemble Sri Lanka’s approach during Mahinda Rajapaksa’s tenure, when heavy borrowing forced Colombo to pivot toward Beijing,” the report stated.

“Although China claims to follow a policy of non-interference, its Ambassador to Nepal reportedly held a series of meetings with key leaders of the Nepal Communist Party to broker a deal that would keep Oli as Prime Minister for a full five-year term. This shows how China is becoming increasingly involved in Nepal’s domestic politics, pulling the country further into Beijing’s orbit,” it added.

In December 2024, Oli visited China, bypassing the unwritten diplomatic tradition that neighbouring leaders first visit India. The report said that the Nepalese ambassador to China later rejected the claims that such a tradition exists during an interview in Beijing. During Oli’s visit, Nepal inked multiple agreements under Beijing’s “One Belt One Road” initiative, intended to transform Nepal from landlocked to land-linked.

The report stressed that Sri Lanka offers a cautionary example with Chinese loans during former President Rajapaksa’s rule, enabling the construction of the strategic Hambantota port—ultimately trapping Colombo in a “debt trap.”

“The $216 million Pokhara International Airport in Nepal, financed by China Exim Bank, has raised similar concerns and is linked to massive corruption. Just as the Chinese-built Hambantota port faced criticism for potential dual-use, Pokhara Airport has attracted similar scrutiny. Allegations swirl that $71 million from China’s Exim Bank was embezzled through deals between Chinese firms and Nepali politicians. While some individuals have faced charges, investigations have led nowhere. Corruption festers, fueling political instability,” the report noted.

- IANS