Key Points

Analysts at the brokerage firm, HDFC Securities have increased revenue and EPS estimates of MCX by 7 per cent to 9 per cent and maintain a 'Buy' rating on it, setting a target price of Rs 10,000.

Precious metals such as gold and silver were expected to emerge as major contributors to options premium, and this trend is firmly on track and gaining strength, the report from HDFC Securities said.

Further, the upcoming launch of cash-settled index contracts such as Metldex and Bulldex is expected to generate growth thrust and attract higher participation from FPIs and institutions.

Options premium average daily turnover (ADTV) rose to approximately Rs 67 billion in October 2025, up from Rs 41 billion in Q2 FY25, driven by increased gold and silver volumes. Bullion now represents nearly 60 per cent of total notional volume and 30 per cent of premium ADTV, a significant increase from 20 per cent and 8 per cent a year ago, the report noted.

The exchange had recently updated its gold and silver options, introducing monthly expiries and smaller contract sizes. This led to a 7-fold rise in gold ADTV and a 37-fold surge in silver ADTV YoY in September.

HDFC Securities forecasted that the bullion could reach 40 per cent of total premium by Q4FY27E, materially reducing earlier concentration risk from crude and natural gas contracts collectively accounting for 85 per cent share previously.

MCX is expected to achieve a revenue and PAT CAGR of 27 per cent and 33 per cent respectively from FY25 to FY28, the report said. The broking said that the exchange warrants a soft Q2 FY26 outlook but is positioned for sustained options growth and medium-term earnings trajectory.

- IANS