Key Points

Despite the ruling CPI(M)-led LDF losing the seat -- and with its high-profile candidate M. Swaraj suffering defeat -- there has been no dissent or murmur of protest within the party against Vijayan's nine-year unbroken leadership.

Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukath reclaimed Nilambur, a seat that had gone to CPI(M)-backed independent P.V. Anvar in both 2016 and 2021 state elections. Anvar had won with a margin of 11,504 votes in 2016 and 11,077 votes in 2021, although his margin shrank to 2,800 in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

A political observer, speaking on condition of anonymity, told IANS, “Even after defeat, no one is pointing fingers at anyone within the CPI(M). Compare that to the Congress, where internal contradictions surface even in victory.”

“This is the organisational strength of the CPI(M). Already, confusion surrounds Anvar’s future, with senior Congress leaders sending mixed signals,” he added.

CPI(M) state secretary M.V. Govindan claimed that the Left’s vote base remained intact and insisted that the bypoll result did not reflect anti-incumbency.

Sharing the same sentiment, youth leader Jake C. Thomas -- who lost thrice to the Chandy family, including in a 2023 bypoll to Chandy Oommen -- said, “Now that Govindan has spoken, I have nothing more to add.”

Meanwhile, Anvar's future continues to hang in the balance. After falling out with CM Vijayan, Anvar resigned as MLA in January this year and made efforts to align with the UDF as an associate member. But his overtures were strongly resisted by a faction led by the Leader of Opposition, V.D. Satheesan.

In the Nilambur bypoll, Anvar managed to secure over 19,000 votes. State Congress president K. Sudhakaran and senior leader Ramesh Chennithala hinted that the doors weren't fully shut on Anvar, leaving Satheesan visibly uncomfortable.

When asked about Anvar’s prospects within the UDF, Satheesan replied curtly, “No comments.”

UDF convenor Adoor Prakash added a note of caution: “We tried to cooperate with Anvar, but his last-minute actions made things difficult. Any future decision regarding him must be taken collectively by all alliance partners.”

Unfazed, Anvar has now declared political war against State Tourism Minister P.A. Mohammed Riyas, Vijayan’s son-in-law. He has vowed to contest against Riyas in Beypore in the 2026 Assembly elections.

As the CPI(M) closes ranks and shields Vijayan from the fallout of the Nilambur defeat, the UDF now finds itself grappling with post-victory challenges, particularly over Anvar’s future.

- IANS