India's GDP Growth Projected at 7.4% in FY26 as Modi Hails 'Reform Express'

In a post on X, the Prime Minister said, "India's Reform Express continues to gain momentum. This is powered by the NDA Government's comprehensive investment push and demand-led policies. Be it infrastructure, manufacturing incentives, digital public goods or 'Ease of Doing Business', we are working to realise our dream of a prosperous India."

The Prime Minister's remarks come as the National Statistics Office (NSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), released the First Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the financial year 2025-26, along with its Expenditure components both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices.

According to an official MoSPI data, India's real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.4% in FY 2025-26 against the growth rate of 6.5% during FY 2024-25; Nominal GDP is estimated to grow at 8.0% in FY 2025-26; Buoyant Growth in Services Sector has been found to be a major driver in the estimated Real GVA growth rate of 7.3% in FY 2025-26.

Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence and Other Services in the Tertiary Sector have been estimated to attain a substantial growth rate of 9.9% at Constant Prices in FY 2025-26; Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting Sector has been estimated to grow by 7.5% at Constant Prices in FY 2025-26; Manufacturing and Construction in the Secondary Sector has been estimated to achieve a growth rate of 7.0% at Constant Prices in FY 2025-26, a statement read.

Agriculture and Allied Sector (3.1%) and Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services Sector (2.1%) have seen moderate growth rate in GVA at Constant Prices during FY 2025-26; Real Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) has been estimated to attain a growth rate of 7.0% during FY 2025-26; Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has been estimated to have 7.8% growth rate at Constant Prices during FY 2025-26, compared to 7.1% growth rate in previous FY.

According to the MoSPI data, in absolute terms, Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹201.90 lakh crore in FY 2025-26, against the Provisional Estimates (PE) of GDP for the FY 2024-25 of ₹187.97 lakh crore, registering a growth rate of 7.4%. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹357.14 lakh crore in the FY 2025-26, against ₹330.68 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.0%.

Real GVA is estimated at ₹184.50 lakh crore in the FY 2025-26, against the Provisional Estimates (PE) for the FY 2024-25 of ₹171.87 lakh crore, registering a growth rate of 7.3%. Nominal GVA is estimated to attain a level of ₹323.48 lakh crore during FY 2025-26, against ₹300.22 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 7.7%.

MoSPI stated that the advance estimates are compiled using indicator-based methods, drawing data from multiple ministries, government agencies and private sector sources, including industrial production, GST collections, agricultural output, transport activity and financial sector performance.

The Ministry also added that the Base year of National Accounts is currently being revised from 2011-12 to 2022-23, and future GDP estimates will be updated accordingly.

The Second Advance Estimates of GDP for FY 2025-26, along with past 3 financial years' GDP estimates as well as Quarterly GDP estimates as per the new base FY 2022-23 will be released on 27.02.2026, a release added.

Meanwhile, the release of the advance estimates comes ahead of the Union Budget, which is expected to be presented on February 1. The Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA) has agreed to propose January 28 as the date for the start of the budget session of Parliament and February 1 as the date for the presentation of the Union Budget, sources said on Wednesday, noting that a final decision on dates is yet to be taken.

The budget session is the first session of Parliament in a calendar year and begins with the President's address to the joint sitting of the two Houses.

- ANI