Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicle growth to moderate in FY27, easing fuel price uncertainty may support demand: Kotak
Mumbai, June 16
India's medium and heavy commercial vehicle industry is likely to witness a moderation in growth during FY27 after a strong performance in the previous fiscal, although easing fuel price uncertainty could provide support to fleet operators and vehicle demand, according to a report by Kotak Institutional Equities.
The brokerage expects domestic M&HCV industry growth to slow to low single digits in FY27, primarily due to a high base effect and normalization of demand that had been pulled forward earlier.
"We expect the domestic M&HCV industry growth to moderate to low-single digits in FY2027E after a strong FY2026," the report said.
Kotak believes a potential US-Iran agreement could help reduce crude oil and diesel price volatility, thereby improving visibility for fleet operators. "With a likely US-Iran deal, crude/diesel prices may continue its downtrend... and may bring greater certainty to fleet purchase decisions and provide a floor to demand," the report noted.
The brokerage said that diesel expenses account for 30-50 per cent of the total cost of ownership for fleet operators, making fuel prices a critical factor in vehicle purchasing decisions.
While underlying demand drivers remain supportive, the pace of growth is expected to remain capped. According to the report, "tailwinds such as sustained government capex on infrastructure, replacement demand from an aging fleet and healthy utilization levels should keep underlying demand supportive." At the same time, "price increases, owing to higher input costs, a high base and monsoon uncertainty are likely to cap the pace of growth in FY2027E."
Kotak estimates that M&HCV volumes will grow around 3 per cent year-on-year in FY27.
The report also highlighted the impact of rising operating costs on fleet profitability. Following a recent diesel price increase of Rs 7.5 per litre and higher tyre prices, "the total fleet costs have risen by 7-8 per cent." To maintain profitability, fleet operators would require a further increase in freight rates.
"In order to maintain their profitability, fleet operators would need to increase freight rates by 5-6 per cent," the report said, adding that freight rates have already risen about 2 per cent since March 2026 and may need another 3-4 per cent increase to fully offset cost inflation.
— ANI
Reader Comments
Infrastructure spending by Modi government has been consistent, so replacement demand for old trucks will continue. But monsoon uncertainty always worries us in rural areas—if rains are poor, agricultural demand drops and so does cargo movement. Growth might be moderate but at least it's not declining.
Interesting analysis from Kotak. The high base effect is real—FY26 saw massive pre-buying ahead of BS-VII norms. But I'm skeptical about US-Iran deal actually happening given current geopolitics. If fuel prices stay volatile, even 3% growth might be optimistic. Fleet operators are already squeezed.
My father runs a small trucking business in Tamil Nadu and diesel price hikes have really hurt us. That ₹7.5 per litre increase last year was brutal. If fuel costs come down even slightly, it'll be a relief. But why is the government not cutting excise duty on diesel? 😤
Good that they're highlighting replacement demand—our fleet is aging and many trucks are over 15 years old. The scrappage policy needs more teeth though. Also, why is nobody talking about electric trucks? With battery costs falling, even M&HCVs could go electric in a few years. That would be a game-changer for India.
The freight rate increase of 2% since March is not enough to cover 7-8% cost inflation. Small operators are going to struggle unless demand picks up significantly. But with GDP growth slowing globally, export demand may not help much. Cautious optimism is the right stance here.
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