Ex-FDA Chief Warns US Measles Surge Part of Global Anti-Vax Cycle

"I think this is going to get worse, unfortunately, before it resolves," Gottlieb said on CBS' Face the Nation, pointing to a steady rise in cases this year following what he described as declining childhood immunisation rates.

So far this year, the United States has reported about 750 measles cases, Gottlieb said, adding that the number is likely to climb significantly by year's end. Last year, the country recorded roughly 2,000 cases.

"This is going to be a long cycle," he said, noting that the majority of new infections are now appearing among children aged five to 17, rather than toddlers. "We're seeing vaccination rates decline among toddlers really as part of a broader movement away from pediatric vaccines in this country."

As unvaccinated toddlers age into school environments, Gottlieb warned, outbreaks are likely to intensify. "As those toddlers age into school age settings, the scope of the measles outbreaks are going to continue to escalate in this country," he said.

Gottlieb drew parallels with earlier periods of declining immunisation. In the early 1990s, he said, measles cases surged when vaccination coverage dropped. "In 1991, there were about 25,000 cases of measles," he said. "In 1992, we had about 10,000."

Today, national vaccination rates for measles, mumps and rubella hover around 90 percent, Gottlieb said, but in some outbreak-prone states the numbers are far lower. "In some of the states where you're seeing these outbreaks, the rate is as low as 81 percent in Alaska, 88 percent in a number of states that are having outbreaks right now," he said.

Host Margaret Brennan noted that the problem is not confined to the United States. "Britain, Canada, Spain, a number of European and central Asian countries lost their measles elimination status," she said, suggesting the trend reflects "a global anti-vaccine movement."

Gottlieb agreed. "Yes, look, I think that that's right," he said, arguing that the Covid-19 pandemic played a major role in fueling vaccine skepticism worldwide. "People felt compelled to take vaccines that they had hesitations around through state action," he said. "That would create an anti-vaccine backlash. And I think that's what we're seeing."

He said the backlash has given greater political influence to vaccine opponents. "It's given voice to a lot of people who are anti-vax from the outset, who are now gaining political resonance and starting to drive a lot of the policy agenda," Gottlieb said, including within the US Department of Health and Human Services.

Gottlieb warned that the consequences extend beyond measles. "It's not just MMR," he said. "It's diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis as well." He cited growing outbreaks of whooping cough in the United States and said similar trends were emerging internationally.

Measles, he stressed, remains particularly dangerous because of its high transmissibility. "The herd immunity rate is about 95 percent vaccination in a community," Gottlieb said. "In certain pockets of this country we're well below that."

Brennan noted that some communities have vaccination rates near 70 per cent, a level Gottlieb said makes outbreaks almost inevitable.

Gottlieb also challenged claims that childhood infections are harmless, sharing his own medical history to underscore long-term risks. "Viruses do have long-term sequelae," he said, linking infections to conditions including cancer, multiple sclerosis and other chronic illnesses.

- IANS