ABP News-AC Nielsen opinion poll predicts Modi win
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is all set to lead the state for the third successive term, with an increased number of seats, says the opinion poll conducted by ABP News and AC Nielsen in October.
The opinion poll conducted all over Gujarat has projected 124 seats for the BJP, seven more than the 117 it won in the 2007 assembly election.
While the opinion poll brings cheers to the BJP and its supremo in Gujarat, Narendra Modi, it scales down the share of Congress seats to just 51. That is eight short of the 59 seats the party won in the last assembly elections.
The opinion poll was conducted across 91 assembly constituencies in October.
Among the respondents were 16,384 common voters, while 910 opinion leaders were also interviewed.
The complete field work was carried out in the Oct 16-29, 2012, period.
While the BJP would get more seats, its share of votes would go down compared to 2007 assembly elections when the party had polled 49.12 percent votes. This time, the BJP would get 47 percent votes, the opinion poll has projected.
Though the Congress is projected as getting lighter by eight seats, its vote share would remain at 38 percent as before.
The opinion poll paints a grim picture for former Gujarat chief minister Keshubhai Patel, giving him just three seats.
Keshubhai Patel had resigned from the BJP and floated his Gujarat Parivartan Party. He is projected as the face of the Patel community in the state.
Independents and others are likely to get four seats, including two to the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
Regionwise, the opinion poll has forecast the BJP getting 39 seats out of the 54 seats in Saurashtra-Kutch with the Congress securing only 11 seats.
In central Gujarat, which has 40 seats, the opinion poll says the BJP is expected to walk away with 20 while Congress would win 18.
Similarly, the opinion poll has projected the BJP getting 39 out of the 53 seats in north Gujarat and the Congress 14. The opinion poll predicts the BJP is sweeping south Gujarat, winning 26 of the 35 seats there, while Congress would get only 8.
The opinion poll says that even after ten years being at the helm of the affairs in Gujarat, Modi continues to hold sway: 53 percent respondents said he should shift from the state to the national politics.
Modi's strong footing in urban Gujarat was evident in the opinion poll with 62 percent respondents in urban areas feeling that he should take to the centre and lead the BJP in the 2014 elections to the Lok Sabha.
The opinion poll says that there is no support for civil society activist Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal - just 19 percent and 15 percent respondents respectively saying they would vote against parties of these anti-corruption crusaders.