Seemanchal's Election Mystery: Why Religious Loyalties Trump Poverty and Floods

The region comprises 24 Assembly constituencies – or roughly 20 per cent – of Bihar’s 122 Assembly constituencies going to polls in the second phase of the state election on Tuesday.

The total number of seats in the Bihar Legislative Assembly is 243, of which elections have already been held in 121 constituencies on November 6.

Counting of votes will take place on November 14. Seemanchal, bordering West Bengal and Nepal, comprises a Muslim population far above the state average, a factor that makes its Assembly seats disproportionately important in tight contests.

Though Muslims account for around 17.70 per cent of Bihar’s population according to the 2023 caste-based survey data, the community plays a decisive role in polls for 47 of the state’s total seats.

In Seemanchal however, the Muslim population is estimated at around 47 per cent. It is this segment that Asaduddin Owaisi, president of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) intends to tap again.

For decades Seemanchal’s politics is seen through the prism of the larger Bihar formula, with political parties converting local religious and caste loyalties into predictable vote banks. After the Mandal politics of the 1990s, electoral arithmetic in Bihar primarily boiled down to support from OBC and EBC blocs, Dalits and upper-caste groups, together with Muslim votes.

Seemanchal developed its own profile with high Muslim concentrations, low development indicators, migration-driven livelihoods and frequent flood-induced distress, which created a mixture of identity and issue-driven politics.

In the 2020 election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won eight seats here, with its ally Janata Dal (United) getting four.

Meanwhile, Mahagathbandhan partners Congress managed five, and the Left and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) could win one seat each.

The AIMIM pulled off victories in five seats, but four of its MLAs later switched to the RJD. This time, Owaisi announced that he intends his party to contest from 28 seats, of which 15 are in Seemanchal.

In the 2020 Assembly election, AIMIM fielded 20 candidates of which a quarter could register victories. In Jokihat Assembly seat, the RJD lost to the AIMIM nominee by over 7,000 votes, while in Baisi, where Owaisi’s party beat BJP by about 16,000 votes, Tejashwi’s candidate had cornered more than 38,000 mandates.

In the latter, the RJD could argue that AIMIM divided anti-incumbency votes. Meanwhile, the AIMIM candidate in Bahadurganj beat the closest rival from Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) by over 45,000 votes, pushing the Congress nominee representing the Mahagathbandhan – who managed about 30,000 votes – to the third place.

Similarly, in Kochadhaman and Amour, AIMIM candidates comfortably won with margins of over 36,000 and 52,000 votes, while the RJD in the former, and Congress in the latter, came in the third position with 26,000 and close to 32,000 votes, respectively.

On the other hand, while the Congress candidate managed to win in Kishanganj by only 1,381 votes over the runner-up from BJP, AIMIM secured close to 42,000 votes.

Elsewhere, like in Kasba, Pranpur, Manihari, Chhatapur, among other constituencies, AIMIM candidates failed to make a mark, sometimes securing as less as 0.25 to 2 per cent of the mandate.

AIMIM wins, however, did not translate into long-term organisational dominance, with several of the MLAs either defecting or shifting alignments soon after the election, underscoring volatility at the constituency level and the role of local brokers and personalities.

This time, despite several overtures from Owaisi to ally with the Mahagathbandhan, Tejashwi turned a deaf ear calculating that getting AIMIM onboard could paint a Muslim overreach, possibly affecting Yadav voters.

Bihar’s caste census report reflected the latter comprising about 14.3 per cent of the state’s population. Thus, the Seemachal region is once again all set to witness a multi-cornered contest on Tuesday.

- IANS