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Key Points

The latest BCG report indicates a significant shift in the global payments landscape. After years of rapid expansion, growth is expected to moderate as the industry undergoes a foundational reset. New technologies like agentic AI and real-time payment systems are becoming central drivers of future development. This evolution means success will depend on deeply integrating these new capabilities into business models.

Key Points: BCG Reports Global Payments Growth to Moderate at 4% After 8% Surge

  • Global payments revenue reached $1.9 trillion in 2024 and is projected to hit $2.4 trillion by 2029
  • Real-time A2A payment volumes surged 40% globally in 2024, now accounting for a quarter of digital retail payments
  • Agentic AI is set to influence over $1 trillion in e-commerce spending, shaping future online purchases
  • Latin America is projected to lead regional growth at 7.9% annually, followed by the Middle East and Africa
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Real time payments growth to moderate at 4% after growing over 8% since 2019: BCG

BCG's Global Payments Report forecasts a slowdown to 4% annual growth, highlighting the rise of real-time A2A payments, agentic AI, and new fintech models.

"Payments is no longer just about moving money; it is about shaping the very fabric of commerce and financial sovereignty. - Vivek Mandhata, BCG"

New Delhi, September 22

Real-time A2A payments are gaining critical mass, and their growth is likely to moderate at 4 per cent annually over the next five years, noted a research report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The report, however, adds that India's UPI now powers over 19 billion transactions monthly.

"Global payments revenue reached USD 1.9 trillion in 2024, but future growth will slow. After growing at 8.8 per cent annually since 2019, revenue expansion is expected to ease to 4 per cent annually. Transaction-based revenues remain strong, while deposit margin tailwinds slacken," noted the BCG report

The report adds, global payments revenue is projected to grow to USD 2.4 trillion by 2029. The industry is undergoing a foundational reset as agentic AI, digital currencies, and fintech business models begin to shape the next wave of expansion.

These findings come from BCG's 23rd annual Global Payments Report, released on Monday. The report draws on BCG's proprietary Global Payments Model and includes forecasts and market dynamics.

"Payments is no longer just about moving money; it is about shaping the very fabric of commerce and financial sovereignty. Real-time A2A, digital currencies, and agentic AI are expected to redefine how trillions flow not just within borders but across borders. Those who act decisively now will set the pace for the industry's next chapter," said Vivek Mandhata, managing director & partner, BCG

As per the report, real-time A2A payment volumes rose 40 per cent globally in 2024. These systems now account for around a quarter of digital retail payments worldwide, even exceeding 50 per cent of transactions in selected markets like India and Brazil. In the Middle East and Africa, where real-time systems are still emerging, adoption is projected to reach more than 50 per cent by 2030.

"Looking at overall growth (transaction-related and non-transaction-related revenue combined), Latin America will lead with 7.9 per cent projected annual growth from 2024 to 2029, followed by the Middle East and Africa at 6.8 per cent," the report said.

"This is a turning point for the industry," said Inderpreet Batra, BCG managing director and senior partner and global head of the firm's payments and fintech segment.

"Traditional growth levers are losing force, but new drivers, including agentic systems, programmable money, and fintech innovation, are rapidly coming into focus. The players that align to these shifts now will lead the next decade," he added.

According to BCG research, agentic AI is set to influence over USD 1 trillion in e-commerce spending. Around 81 per cent of US consumers expect to use agentic AI tools to shop, which will shape more than half of all online purchases in the near future.

"We're entering an era where growth and complexity go hand in hand," said Markus Ampenberger, BCG managing director and partner. "The next winners in payments won't just be fast adopters of technology. They will be the firms that deeply integrate new capabilities into business and operating models, and customer value propositions."

- ANI

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Reader Comments

A
Arjun K
While the growth moderation is expected, I'm more interested in how AI will transform payments. Agentic AI influencing $1 trillion in e-commerce is massive! Hope Indian fintech companies are prepared for this shift.
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Rohit P
India leading in real-time payments with over 50% transactions is impressive! But we need to ensure security keeps pace with this growth. Had a friend who faced UPI fraud last month 😕
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Sarah B
The report mentions Latin America leading growth at 7.9% - interesting to see emerging markets driving the next phase. India's UPI success story should be studied by other countries looking to digitize payments.
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Karthik V
Moderation to 4% growth sounds reasonable after the explosive growth post-demonetization. The real challenge will be making these systems more inclusive for rural India where digital literacy is still low.
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Michael C
The cross-border payments aspect is crucial. If UPI can expand internationally like it has domestically, it could really challenge traditional payment networks. Singapore integration is a good start!

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