RBI Policy Meeting Begins: Will Record Low Inflation Spark a Rate Cut?

The members of the MPC will hold detailed discussions on the future course of monetary policy, taking into account the latest data on GDP growth and inflation. The policy outcome will be announced by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday at 10 AM.

The meeting comes at a time when India's economic performance remains strong, and inflation has fallen sharply. The GDP numbers came at 8.2 per cent for the July-September period, the second quarter of the current financial year 2025-26.

At the same time, inflation has touched a record low. According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), India's retail inflation fell sharply to 0.25 per cent in October 2025.

According to a report by Bank of Baroda, the central bank is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged in this policy.

The report said, "We expect the RBI to keep the repo rate steady at 5.50 per cent in its Dec'25. The stance is also expected to be maintained at neutral."

The report highlighted that India's economic growth remains robust, with GDP growth of 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of FY26 surpassing market expectations. On inflation, the report noted that price pressures have eased considerably as CPI inflation dropped to a series low in October 2025, mainly due to a sustained decline in food prices. It added that inflation is expected to moderate further and could even fall below the RBI's own estimates.

Despite this room opening up for a possible rate cut, the report said the RBI is likely to remain cautious in the upcoming policy review, particularly because economic growth continues to stay strong.

Sharing his views on the current situation, Mehul Pandya, MD and Group CEO of CareEdge Ratings, told ANI that both strong GDP growth and multi-year low inflation create opposing signals for interest rate decisions.

He said, "Both these developments (of a continued strong GDP growth and multi-year low inflationary levels) are mutually opposing forces from an interest rate perspective. Central banks usually do not tend to cut interest rates during the periods of strong economic activity, represented by GDP growth. At the same time, the central banks usually respond to low inflationary environment by cutting interest rates."

The MPC meeting is scheduled from December 3-5 and the final policy decision will be announced on December 5 by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra at 10 AM.

- ANI