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Bihar Exit Poll Shock: NDA Leads But Falls Short of Majority

The Polstrat exit poll gives the NDA a clear advantage in Bihar's assembly elections. The alliance is projected to win between 133 and 148 seats with nearly 45% of the vote. However, the Mahagathbandhan remains competitive with 87-102 seats and over 40% vote share. Final results could still shift due to the tight margin and regional dynamics on counting day.

Key Points: Polstrat Exit Poll Shows NDA Winning 148 Bihar Seats

  • NDA projected to win 133-148 seats with 44.71% vote share
  • BJP leads alliance with 68-72 seats, JD(U) follows with 55-60
  • RJD remains Mahagathbandhan's dominant force with 65-72 seats
  • Survey shows tight 4% vote share gap between major alliances
2 min read

Polstrat Exit Poll: NDA projected to win 148 seats in Bihar

Polstrat exit poll projects NDA winning 133-148 seats in Bihar with 44.71% vote share, while Mahagathbandhan trails at 87-102 seats in tight contest.

"The close vote share gap of just over four percentage points between the two major alliances suggests that regional, caste, and turnout dynamics on the counting day could still alter the outcome - Polstrat Survey"

New Delhi/Patna, Nov 11

The National Democratic Alliance maintains a clear edge in the Bihar assembly elections 2025, according to the People's Insight and Polstrat exit poll released on Tuesday.

Conducted among 1,349,765 respondents through interactive voice response tele-calling and advanced AI-based simulation models, the survey projects the NDA to secure 133 to 148 seats with a 44.71 per cent vote share, comfortably ahead of the Mahagathbandhan, which is estimated at 87 to 102 seats with 40.34 per cent votes.

Within the NDA, the Bharatiya Janata Party leads with a projected 68 to 72 seats, followed closely by the Janata Dal (United) at 55 to 60 seats.

The Lok Janshakti Party is expected to contribute 9 to 12 seats, while smaller allies Hindustani Awam Morcha and Rashtriya Lok Morcha may win 1 to 2 and 0 to 2 seats, respectively.

On the opposition side, the Rashtriya Janata Dal remains the dominant force in the Mahagathbandhan, projected to capture 65 to 72 seats. The Indian National Congress is estimated at 9 to 13 seats, with Left parties collectively securing 11 to 14 seats.

The Vikassheel Insaan Party may add 2 to 3 seats, while the India Inclusion Party is projected to draw a blank.

Smaller players show marginal influence. Jan Suraaj, despite a notable 7.93 per cent vote share, is expected to win 0 to 2 seats.

The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen is projected to secure 2 to 3 seats with 1.74 per cent votes, while the Jan Jan Dal may pick up 0 to 1 seat on a minimal 0.25 per cent.

Independent candidates could win 1 to 2 seats with 2.16 per cent support, and around 2.87 per cent of voters remain undecided or aligned with other minor entities.

The survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent, highlights a tightly contested race where the NDA's lead, though significant, falls short of a two-thirds majority.

The close vote share gap of just over four percentage points between the two major alliances suggests that regional, caste, and turnout dynamics on the counting day could still alter the outcome.

The methodology incorporated statistical weighting for demographics, geography, and response patterns to ensure representativeness across Bihar's 243 constituencies.

Final results will determine the accuracy of these projections.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
Exit polls are just projections, remember 2020? Let's wait for actual results. The vote share difference is only 4% - that's very close! 🤔
A
Arjun K
Interesting to see RJD still holding strong with 65-72 seats despite being in opposition. Tejashwi Yadav's youth connect seems to be working well in many constituencies.
S
Sarah B
As someone who follows Indian politics closely, I must say the methodology seems robust with 1.3 million respondents. But exit polls have been wrong before, so let's see on counting day!
M
Meera T
Jan Suraaj getting nearly 8% vote share but only 0-2 seats shows the problem with our electoral system. First-past-the-post needs reform! 😕
V
Vikram M
BJP leading with 68-72 seats while JD(U) at 55-60 shows the changing equations in Bihar politics. The alliance dynamics will be interesting to watch post-results.
K
Kavya N
Respectfully, I feel exit polls create unnecessary hype and can influence counting day narratives. Media should be more responsible in reporting these projections.

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

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