Key Points

While Punjab and Rajasthan are facing major crop losses, the impact remains localised in other states. The report mentioned that the next few weeks will be crucial for the agriculture sector.

It stated, "September's rainfall pattern will be critical with the India Meteorological Department projecting above-normal precipitation across northern and central India. This coincides with key growth stages for paddy, cotton, soybean, maize and onion, making the month vital for crop health and yield."

As of September 2, cumulative rainfall stood about 7 per cent above the long-term average. States such as Jharkhand, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana recorded excess rainfall.

Punjab was among the worst affected, with rainfall in August being 74 per cent above normal. The state saw around 70,000 hectares of farmland flooded out of its 4.24 million hectares of arable land. Crops like paddy, sugarcane, and cotton were submerged across districts.

The report highlighted several key risks for major crops. In paddy, waterlogging during the tillering stage may cause yellowing of leaves, stunted growth, and lower yields by 5-10 per cent.

In sugarcane, submergence has heightened the risk of red rot disease, which could reduce both cane and sugar yields by 5-10 per cent and also affect juice quality.

Cotton, which is in the squaring stage, faces the risk of flower drop and pink bollworm infestation that could reduce yields by 15-20 per cent and impact fibre quality.

The southwest monsoon, which accounts for nearly 76 per cent of India's annual rainfall, plays a crucial role in agriculture and the economy.

In Haryana, border districts adjoining Punjab, such as Sirsa, Fatehabad, and Jind, reported crop stress due to spillover effects. Paddy fields in these regions showed premature flowering and bolting, suggesting lower output.

Tomato crops have been moderately affected, while sowing of carrots in August was delayed because of waterlogging.

In Rajasthan, heavy rainfall caused widespread damage to bajra, jowar, soybean, groundnut, green gram, and black gram across Ajmer, Tonk, Kota, Bundi, Jaipur, and Dausa.

Uttar Pradesh witnessed localised damage along the banks of the Yamuna and Ganga rivers and their tributaries.

Meanwhile, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana reported varied impacts. Localised flooding created limited stress, but overall, paddy, maize, and cotton were mostly unaffected. However, yields of pulses such as black gram and green gram have declined due to flower drop.

Crisil noted that erratic rains also pose a risk to inflation, as food has a 47 per cent weight in the Consumer Price Index basket and accounts for 47 per cent of rural and 40 per cent of urban household spending.

It outlined that "any further production losses could intensify supply-side pressures, raise food inflation risks and weigh on consumption and price stability".

- ANI