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Key Points

Pollster Pradeep Gupta suggests Bihar's upcoming election will be a tight contest between alliances. He identifies Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as the only constant factor after two decades in power. The analysis points to BJP emerging as the primary alternative rather than Tejashwi Yadav's RJD. With both major blocs having similar vote shares, small factors could determine the final outcome.

Key Points: Nitish Kumar Bihar Election Common Denominator Says Pradeep Gupta

  • Last election saw NDA and INDIA bloc with equal 37% vote share
  • Muslim-Yadav equation gives RJD strong 31-32% base
  • LJP inclusion expected to boost NDA seat count significantly
  • BJP seen as alternative amid jungle raj allegations against RJD
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Only common denominator is Nitish Kumar: Axis My India's Pradeep Gupta hints at close contest in Bihar

Axis My India's Pradeep Gupta predicts close Bihar contest, calls Nitish Kumar the only common denominator with BJP seen as alternative to RJD's jungle raj

"The only common denominator is Nitish Kumar, who has been there for 20 years - Pradeep Gupta"

New Delhi, September 28

Chairman and Managing Director of Axis My India, Pradeep Gupta, said that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is the only "common denominator" in the elections.

Ahead of the Bihar Assembly elections, later this year, pollster Pradeep Gupta hinted at a close contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan alliances.

In an interview with ANI, he said, "Bihar is a state where it is difficult to analyse even after the voting is done. Last time, both NDA and the INDIA bloc had 37 per cent vote share each, but RJD+ won 110 seats while NDA got 125 seats."

"The first analysis parameter is the extent of anti-incumbency. In Bihar, it is very different, but the only common denominator is Nitish Kumar, who has been there for 20 years. Even if there is an anti-incumbency, the question is - What is the alternative?" he added.

When asked about Tejashwi Yadav as an alternative to Nitish Kumar, interestingly, he pointed out the BJP as an alternative amid 'jungle raj' allegations against the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led party.

He said, "Before Tejashwi, there is BJP in Bihar...Nitish Kumar has switched alliances in these 20 years, so the public looks at the BJP as an alternative. There are also Tejashwi or the new emerging Prashant Kishor as alternatives."

Gupta added that the Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) equation has helped RJD to continue as a strong Opposition party in the State.

"In the last 20-30 years, Bihar has been the only State to undergo a caste census. Muslim-Yadav equation is almost 31-32 per cent... Thus, RJD has not lost its presence despite being in opposition for a long time... But they had a history with allegations of 'jungle raj' and extortion," he said.

He highlighted that the inclusion of Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is expected to benefit the NDA in the upcoming polls.

"Last time RJD seemed to win, but had LJP contested along with NDA, like now, NDA would have secured 138 seats," he said.

The ruling NDA led by JD(U)-BJP is set to contest against the RJD-Congress' Mahagathbandhan in the upcoming Bihar Assembly polls. The Election Commission of India (ECI) is yet to announce the date for the polling.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

S
Shreya B
Interesting that he mentioned Prashant Kishor as an alternative. PK has been doing good ground work in Bihar with his Jan Suraaj campaign. Maybe it's time for a fresh face beyond the usual political families.
A
Arjun K
The M-Y equation analysis is crucial. RJD's core voter base remains strong, but their "jungle raj" reputation still haunts them. As a young voter from Bihar, I want development, not caste-based politics.
P
Priya S
Respectfully, I think Gupta is underestimating Tejashwi Yadav's appeal among youth. His employment promise in 2020 elections resonated with many. Nitish ji has done good work but needs to address unemployment more seriously.
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Michael C
As someone following Indian politics from outside, it's fascinating how Bihar's political landscape operates. The caste dynamics and alliance mathematics make it one of the most complex states to predict. Great analysis by Gupta.
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Kavya N
LJP's inclusion in NDA will definitely make a difference. Chirag Paswan has significant influence in certain constituencies. Last election proved how crucial every seat is in Bihar's fragmented political scenario.

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