Monsoon to hit Kerala coast ahead of normal onset date, positive for country's economy

ANI May 11, 2025 389 views

The India Meteorological Department predicts an early monsoon onset over Kerala by May 27, ahead of the usual June 1 date. This early arrival signals potential benefits for India's agricultural sector and broader economy. IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall for 2025, continuing the positive trend from 2024's four-year high monsoon performance. Farmers rely heavily on timely monsoons for successful Kharif crop cultivation across the country.

"Above-normal monsoon rains helped farmers sow more crops this Kharif season, which bodes well for the overall agriculture sector." - IMD
New Delhi, May 11: The Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala ahead of its normal onset date in 2025.

Key Points

1

Monsoon likely to hit Kerala by May 27

2

Early onset benefits agriculture and manufacturing

3

IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall in 2025

4

Monsoon crucial for Kharif crop sowing

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update this week that this year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 27, with a model error of 4 days on both sides.

The normal onset date for the southwest monsoon is June 1.

Monsoons are a key indicator that helps analysts gauge the economic outlook of the country's manufacturing and agricultural sectors.

During the past five years, the monsoon has onset early on two occasions--2022 and 2024. In 2022 and 2024, the monsoon onset was May 29 and May 30, as per IMD data.

In 2024, the southwest monsoon rains in India hit a four-year high, experiencing about 108 per cent of the long-period average at 934.8 mm, data made available by the state-run weather bureau showed. The long-period average in India is 868.6 mm.

In its pre-monsoon forecast in 2024, IMD predicted rainfall across the country to be above normal, at 106 per cent of the long-period average.

In 2025, IMD said the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal (greater than 104 per cent of the Long Period Average).

The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala. It is an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season.

As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas.

Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about 7 days.

IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards.

IMD's operational forecasts of the monsoon onset date over Kerala during the past 20 years (2005-2024) were correct except in 2015. Forecast verification for the recent 5 years (2020-2024) is in the table below.

Above-normal monsoon rains helped farmers sow more crops this Kharif season, which bodes well for the overall agriculture sector. Agriculture is the mainstay source of livelihoods for millions of Indians.

Traditionally, Indian agriculture, especially the Kharif season, relies heavily on monsoon rainfall.

Reader Comments

R
Rahul K.
Early monsoon is great news for our farmers! 🚜 Last year's good rains helped my uncle in Punjab get a bumper wheat crop. Hope this trend continues and helps control food inflation too. IMD's predictions have been quite accurate recently.
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Priya M.
While early monsoon is welcome, we must ensure proper water management. Many cities still face floods despite good rainfall. The government should focus on better drainage systems and rainwater harvesting infrastructure.
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Sanjay T.
Monsoon is India's real finance minister! 🌧️ Good rains mean better crops, more rural income, and boost to FMCG sector. Stock markets usually react positively to such news. Hope IMD's forecast holds true.
A
Ananya R.
As someone from Kerala, early monsoon means we'll get relief from this terrible heat soon! But I hope the intensity remains moderate - last year's heavy rains caused so much damage to roads and properties in our area.
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Vikram S.
The article mentions IMD's good track record, but I remember their 2015 prediction was wrong. While their technology has improved, we should still be cautious about over-reliance on forecasts. Agriculture needs more climate-resilient practices.
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Neha P.
Good monsoon = Happy farmers = Better economy. It's that simple! 😊 Hope the government uses this opportunity to strengthen MSP systems and ensure farmers actually benefit from good production. Jai Kisan!

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monsoon 2025 Kerala monsoon IMD forecast Indian agriculture economic impact