Jagan's Fiscal Warning: Why Andhra's Revenue Crisis Exposes Naidu's Claims

“The figures released by the CAG for first half of FY 2025-26 reveal a very discouraging growth of State Government revenues. This is quite contrary to the tall claims of TDP and JSP to the electorate that they would ensure that the State Government revenues would grow rapidly in their Government,” Jagan Mohan Reddy said in a post on ‘X’ on Sunday.

He alleged that a mere glance at the TDP alliance government's performance on the fiscal front exposes their failures. Citing the CAG figures, he pointed out that during the first half of the financial year 2025-26, the year-on-year growth of the state government's own tax revenues was only 7.03 per cent. Many would have expected a recovery in 2025-26; however, the figures released by CAG suggest otherwise, he said.

“Goods and Service Tax and Sales Tax reflect consumption and the aggregate of the GST revenues and Sales Tax revenues were only higher by a mere 2.85% during the first six months of this financial year when compared with the corresponding period last year,” he said.

“If we take into consideration, the CAGR of revenues over the first six months of the two year period 2023-24 to 2025-26, the situation is even more distressing with the state’s own tax revenues growing at only 2.75%. Despite this, Mr. Chandrababu Naidu is attempting to hoodwink the people into believing that the State is achieving stupendous economic growth,” he added.

“The TDP alliance Government claims of a GSDP growth of 12.02% in FY 2024-25 and targets a GSDP growth of 17.1% in FY 2025-26. This level of economic growth means huge consumption and investment translating to GSDP CAGR of 14.53% over the two year period. This should result in a corresponding tax revenues CAGR of around 12% - 15% over the two year period. However, the reality is that, the tax revenues grew at CAGR of only 2.75% over the last two years, clearly revealing that the claims are far from reality,” wrote the YSRCP chief.

According to him, the performance on the capital expenditure front is far more distressing, with the outlay shrinking at a CAGR of -16 per cent over the two years.

"Q1 2025-26, the state’s own revenues demonstrated a year-on-year growth of only 3.47%. The aggregate of GST and Sales tax revenues were even lower in Q1, when compared with that during the corresponding period of the previous year. Despite this, Mr Naidu claims that state GSDP grew at a 10.50% in Q1 2025-26 over last year. This is clearly illogical,” he wrote on X.

Referring to the five-year period from 2019-24 when YSRCP was in power, he pointed out that Andhra Pradesh state’s own tax revenues have grown at a CAGR of 9.87 per cent from Rs 58,031 crore to Rs 92,922 crore. During the same period, the Andhra Pradesh state's GSDP grew at a CAGR of 10.23 per cent. “Therefore, the growth in GSDP and the growth in tax revenues is comparable. With a meagre revenues growth during the period of his Government, how can Mr. Chandrababu say that the State is progressing swiftly,” he asked.

“The only aspect in which the State seems to be galloping is with respect to debt. Till now, the TDP alliance government availed and contracted to borrow Rs.2,06,959 crores, which is 62% of what was borrowed by the previous government over a five year period,” Jagan Mohan Reddy added.

- IANS