Liberals projected to win fourth term in Canada, majority still unclear

While it remains uncertain whether the Liberals will form a minority or majority government, the projected victory is significant given the party's earlier struggles in opinion polls. A party must secure 172 seats to form a majority government, but initial results have not yet confirmed if the Liberals have crossed that threshold.

Canadian news outlet CTV News reported that Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal Party are expected to retain power following the 45th federal election. Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau after an internal party revolt led to Trudeau's resignation, led the Liberals through a challenging and unpredictable election campaign.

Alongside Carney, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, and Green Party co-Leader Jonathan Pedneault were key figures in the race. CTV News noted that the Liberals' win marks the first time a party has held onto government for a fourth consecutive term in modern Canadian politics.

The election was held under extraordinary circumstances, including tariff threats and sovereignty attacks from U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump's repeated jabs at Canada, referring to it as the "51st state," fuelled political tensions during the campaign.

Mark Carney, responding to these challenges, positioned himself as a leader capable of defending Canadian sovereignty and rebuilding the economy to withstand external pressures. An IPSOS poll for Global News had shown the Liberals maintaining a four-point lead heading into election day, suggesting momentum was on Carney's side.

Carney's decision to call an early election was framed as a response to what he described as the "most significant crisis" of his lifetime, driven by the need to seek a fresh mandate amid growing threats from the United States.

His background as a central banker and his firm opposition to Trump's annexation rhetoric bolstered his popularity among voters. Throughout the campaign, Carney emphasised resilience and national strength, messages that appeared to resonate widely across Canada.

Unlike his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, whose foreign policy led to strained relations with India, Carney has made efforts to improve ties. He notably offered public condolences after the Pahalgam terror attack, signalling a shift toward better relations with New Delhi.