Inside the ISI Playbook: The Plan to Rig Bangladesh's Crucial Election

An Intelligence Bureau official said that attempts are being made not only to incite violence in Bangladesh, but also ensure that it spills into India.

With the Awami League barred from contesting the polls, the battle is a direct one between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami.

Opinion polls suggest that the battle would be a close one as the support for the Jamaat is growing at a rapid pace.

Officials say that the job to provoke and incite violence has been handed over to the National Citizen Party (NCP).

Pakistan's ISI wants the Jamaat to play the role of the good cop and focus on electoral issues, while the NCP would play the bad cop and incite violence.

The situation in Bangladesh is alarming, warn Indian officials.

Following the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government and the appointment of Muhammad Yunus as the head of the interim government, ties between Dhaka and New Delhi have nosedived. Officials say that Yunus is just a puppet of the Jamaat, and the shots today are being called by the ISI.

The ISI is unhappy that New Delhi has been in touch with the BNP leadership. The BNP too has indicated that it wants to have good relations with India, and this has made Pakistan restless.

Under Hasina, who shared strong ties with India, the ISI was unable to operate in Bangladesh. However, with the Jamaat-backed Yunus at the helm, Pakistan has had its way and made Bangladesh its playground.

The ISI fears that if the BNP does come to power, its role would be limited as the party would look to mend ways with India. Under the previous BNP government, ties were strained as New Delhi accused the Bangladesh government of harbouring extremists who posed a threat to the Northeastern states. The BNP wants to amend this and seeks to have solid ties with India.

The very fact that the BNP decided not to ally with the Jamaat as it had done in the past is an indication that it wants to mend ties with India.

Intelligence Bureau officials say that Pakistan would use every tool at its disposal to drum up a strong anti-India sentiment. It would also look to incite violence ahead of the elections. The aim is to rig the polls and create fear in the minds of the people so that the Jamaat has an advantage.

The basic idea is to scare away the BNP supporters so that only the Jamaat backers get a chance to vote, officials say.

The supporters of the Awami League are more or less likely to stay away from the elections.

However, the BNP backers had decided to vote in large numbers, and this is something that the Jamaat wants to prevent.

Assessments conducted by both officials from India as well as the United States point to large-scale violence in Bangladesh. Attempts would be made to attack rallies of the BNP. Further attacks on both Indian and US nationals in Bangladesh would be carried out, the assessment further notes.

Officials say that the aim would be create an atmosphere of chaos and fear so that voters opposed to the Jamaat do not reach the polling booths.

The elections are not just being held for the 300 parliamentary seats. On the same day, voters will also take part in a national referendum on the proposed "July Charter", which seeks major reforms to state institutions.

Another official explains that further attempts would be made to provoke the people against India. This is a sentiment that would work well for the Jamaat supporters, as they are largely anti-India in nature. Provocative statements since the Yunus takeover have been ongoing.

However, a fresh controversy erupted when National Citizens Party (NCP) leader Hasnat Abdullah on Monday warned of isolating the northeast’s "Seven Sisters" and offering shelter to separatist groups if India tried to destabilise Bangladesh.

India not just summoned Bangladesh’s High Commissioner in New Delhi, Muhammad Riaz Hamidullah, to issue a formal diplomatic protest, but also closed the Indian Visa Application Centre in Dhaka, citing security threats from extremist elements.

Officials say that all these are ploys by Pakistan to ensure an anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. The larger game plan is to create a strong anti-India sentiment so that the people are tilted towards the Jamaat and not the BNP during the elections, officials also say.

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- IANS