Key Points

"Online gaming has grown exponentially over the last decade, closely tied to the increasing affordability of smartphones and internet data plans. The sector is poised to significantly contribute to job creation. Home to the second-largest gamer community globally, India's online gaming sector is estimated to have employed, either directly or indirectly, approximately 100,000 skilled professionals in 2023 alone. Between 2018 and 2023, the workforce in this sector has expanded 20-fold. At this rate of growth, it is estimated that anywhere between 200,000 and 300,000 additional jobs could be created in the near term," says Shashank Reddy, Managing Partner at Evam Law & Policy.

He noted that, "Opinion trading is gaining remarkable traction in India, with homegrown platforms like Probo and MPL Opinio at the forefront. This sector is projected to drive 30-35% of both direct and indirect job creation while contributing significantly to economic growth. With progressive regulation, we anticipate this job creation potential to multiply exponentially as the market matures. This segment currently employs over 10,000 individuals directly and indirectly."

According to recent estimates, opinion trading platforms in India have already accumulated a user base of over 50 million gamers, with annual transaction values exceeding USD 6 billion and collective funding of nearly USD 500 million from more than 35 leading global investors. With revenue generation of over USD 120 million for the financial year 2024-25, such platforms are poised for significant growth in the near term.

Echoing Reddy's views, Dr. Ananth Padmanabhan, Dean of Vinayaka Mission's Law School, said, "The opinion trading sector merges India's tech talent with a booming digital economy. It will create high-value careers while fostering skills in data-driven decision-making. The growth of prediction markets is likely to become a key driver of employment in high-skill areas like data analytics, AI engineering, and regulatory compliance, contributing meaningfully to the evolving digital workforce."

Emphasising the societal value of these platforms, Dr. Padmanabhan added, "Opinion trading platforms create avenues for individuals to take positions on the possibility of various outcomes based on their reasoning and opinions. By facilitating this, they advance the idea that as a social collective, we not only hold firm opinions but test them against the highest standards of reasoning."

The potential for growth of prediction markets is evident from global examples such as Kalshi in the U.S. and Polymarket, which have demonstrated the model's scalability. The global online gaming market, currently valued at $87 billion, is forecast to reach $230 billion by 2033. Similarly, India's online gaming market is projected to reach USD 7.6 billion by the end of 2028, growing at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.5% between 2023 and 2028.

Kalshi, now valued at $2 billion, has secured strategic partnerships with established financial services providers and brokerages--including industry leader Robinhood--to enhance the legitimacy and growth of prediction markets. Meanwhile, Polymarket--backed by visionary investors like Peter Thiel--has partnered with X (formerly Twitter), demonstrating how prediction markets can integrate with social media to drive engagement and real-world insight.

These global developments present massive scalability potential for Indian Opinion Trading platforms.

Dr. Padmanabhan opined, "As India's opinion trading sector matures, its impact extends beyond job creation. These platforms represent a convergence of India's democratic ethos, technological prowess, and economic ambition. By harnessing collective intelligence at scale, homegrown platforms like Probo and MPL Opinio could transform how nations forecast trends, assess risks, and make data-driven decisions. The coming years will test whether India can translate its early momentum into global leadership in this emerging field - turning the wisdom of its crowds into a strategic advantage on the world stage."

- ANI