Key Points

Global smartphone manufacturing output is expected to slip 1 per cent (on-year) in 2025 due to tariff impacts and a broader industry slowdown, following a 4 per cent rise in 2024, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest global smartphone manufacturing allocation tracker.

China, India, and Vietnam were responsible for more than 90 per cent of the global manufacturing output in 2024, with India leading in terms of growth.

However, in 2025, manufacturing outputs from different countries are expected to show mixed performances. China will feel the impact of tariffs in 2025, which will result in declining output coupled with forecast domestic underperformance.

The global smartphone manufacturing shift has been accelerating after the Covid-19 pandemic, but the tariffs have hurt industry players at every level – from upstream component suppliers to downstream importers and distributors, brands to manufacturers.

“Consequently, brand owners have no choice but to move out of China and allocate more production capacity and output in other countries,” said Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst, Ivan Lam.

The main winners are India, which has significant growth potential, and Vietnam, which is relatively closer to China and has a mature contract manufacturing and export sector for consumer electronics, Lam noted.

Observing the recent manufacturing growth spurt in India, Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst, Prachir Singh, stated, “With traditional global EMS giants continuing to invest in India and local EMS actively participating, the country’s local manufacturing capabilities have significantly improved and are now capable of meeting higher production demands – after nearly a decade of refinement”.

Meanwhile, India’s overall manufacturing ecosystem is continuously growing, and local manufacturing is consistently improving, both in terms of yield and complexity.

“To further boost the component ecosystem, the government recently launched the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS), incentivizing companies to invest and build in the country,” Singh added.

- IANS