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Key Points

NITI Aayog's Arvind Virmani confidently forecasts India surpassing Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy by 2026. The International Monetary Fund supports this prediction, anticipating India's nominal GDP to slightly edge out Japan's. In just a decade, India's global economic rank has climbed significantly, moving from 11th to 5th place. To sustain its growth trajectory, achieving consistent high GDP growth is vital for India's ambitions of becoming a developed nation by 2047.

Key Points: Arvind Virmani Predicts India as Fourth-Largest Economy by 2026

  • India to surpass Japan as fourth-largest economy
  • Arvind Virmani and IMF project 2026 timeline
  • India's rapid growth sees it climbing economic ranks
2 min read

India to become fourth-largest economy by 2025-26: NITI Aayog's Arvind Virmani

Arvind Virmani foresees India surpassing Japan to become world's fourth-largest economy by 2026.

"I am fairly confident that in 2025-26, our forecast will come right... - Arvind Virmani"

New Delhi, May 26

NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani on Monday expressed confidence that India will be the fourth-largest economy in the world by 2025-26, surpassing Japan, as forecasted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"Data will come in April (2026). Sometimes it comes a little earlier in February or March. But, we can only expect the international confirmation (in 2026)," Virmani told ANI.

"I am fairly confident that in 2025-26, our forecast will come right -- my forecast and the IMF forecast (that India will become the fourth largest economy)," he added.

According to the IMF's April edition of the World Economic Outlook, India's nominal GDP for fiscal year 2026 is expected to reach around USD 4.187 trillion. This is marginally more than Japan's likely GDP, which is estimated at USD 4.186 billion.

In September 2022, India had surpassed the UK to become the fifth-largest economy in the world.

India continues to be among the fastest-growing major economies and is expected to maintain this momentum over the coming years, according to multiple global agencies. Even as India is projected to overtake Japan in terms of the size of the economy, the per capita income in India still remains very low.

Overall, India has made quite a turnaround, climbing the ladder of economic growth. This can be gauged from the fact that from 11th in 2013-14, India has now positioned itself to become the fourth largest economy soon.

To realise the vision of 'Viksit Bharat' or a developed nation dream by 2047, India will need to achieve a growth rate of around 8 per cent at constant prices, on average, for about a decade or two, the Economic Survey document for 2024-25 tabled on January 31 asserted.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

R
Rajesh K.
This is fantastic news! 🇮🇳 But we must ensure this growth reaches every Indian. Infrastructure development in villages and better healthcare should be priorities now. The 'Viksit Bharat' dream can only be achieved if no one is left behind.
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Priya M.
While the GDP numbers look impressive, I worry about the per capita income. What's the point of being a large economy if most citizens don't feel prosperous? We need more focus on equitable distribution of wealth.
A
Amit S.
From 11th to 4th in just over a decade - that's some achievement! 🚀 Our IT sector and manufacturing push are clearly paying off. Next target should be Germany at #3. Jai Hind!
S
Sunita R.
As a small business owner, I've seen both growth and challenges. While big corporations benefit, MSMEs still struggle with loans and regulations. Hope the government pays attention to grassroots entrepreneurs too.
V
Vikram J.
We must maintain this growth sustainably. China grew rapidly but now faces environmental crises. Let's learn from others' mistakes and develop clean industries from the start. Solar and wind energy investments are promising!
N
Neha T.
The youth will drive this growth! But we need better education reforms to match global standards. More IITs/IIMs are good, but what about primary education quality? That's the real foundation for long-term success.

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