New Delhi, Nov 4
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is headed for a landslide victory, leaving the Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress-Left) much behind in the hotly contested Bihar Assembly elections, found the IANS-Matrize survey in its opinion poll, conducted between October 10 and November 3.
According to the IANS-Matrize survey findings, the NDA is set to sweep the state with a resounding mandate of 49 per cent vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) is seen trailing behind at 38 per cent, a gap of over 11 per cent.
The glaring difference in poll percentage between NDA and the INDIA bloc is also evident in terms of numbers, as the NDA is seen taking a big leap and bagging 153-164 seats, while the grand alliance is projected to win 76-87 seats. If these projections translate into actual numbers, this would mean a close to two-thirds majority for the BJP-led NDA alliance.
As per the IANS-Matrize poll survey, the BJP is expected to fetch 21 per cent vote share while JD (U) is expected to bag 18 per cent, which would translate into 83-87 seats and 61-65 seats respectively. The smaller alliance partners are seen fetching vote share of Hindustan Awam Morcha (2 per cent), Lok Janshakti Party (6 per cent), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (2 per cent).
In the grand alliance, RJD is seen emerging as the largest party with 22 per cent vote share, translating into 62-66 seats, while Congress is projected to get 8 per cent mandate and victory on 7-9 seats. The Left parties comprising CPI (ML), CPI, and CPI (M) together could account for 7 per cent vote share and could add 6-10 seats in the grand alliance's kitty.
Mukesh Sahani's Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) is not seen making an impact, with its vote share reducing to just 1 per cent.
Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj, the new entrant in the poll fray, is seen making a mark in the elections with 4 per cent vote share, but not big enough as publicized in the run-up to the elections.
Owaisi-led AIMIM, which went solo in the high-stakes poll battle, is expected to fetch 1-2 seats with 1 per cent vote share.
The findings of the IANS-Matrize Opinion Poll reflect the opinion of 73,387 people, ahead of polling. The sample size comprised 38,109 males, 19,787 females, and 15,390 youngest voters, and their opinion was taken last month, from October 10 to November 3. The margin of error in survey findings stands at 3 per cent.
Notably, the high-octane canvassing for the first phase of battleground Bihar comes to an end today; this will bring the curtains down on the high-pitched campaign for 121 constituencies, which will go to polls on November 6. The second phase of polling is slated for November 11.
- IANS
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