Gold's Second Weekly Loss Amid US Trade Deal Hopes With India, China

Gold prices recorded their second consecutive weekly loss in Mumbai markets. The decline was driven by fading expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and progress in US trade negotiations. US President Trump announced a trade deal with China involving tariff reductions and agricultural purchases. Analysts expect gold to remain volatile between Rs 1,18,000 and Rs 1,24,000 until trade discussions provide clearer direction.

Key Points: Gold Prices Drop on US Trade Deals and Fed Rate Outlook

  • Gold prices fell Rs 1,649 weekly amid fading Fed rate cut expectations
  • US-China trade deal progress reduced safe-haven demand for gold
  • Federal Reserve hinted at pausing rate cuts after latest 25 bps reduction
  • Strong dollar and international bullion weakness pressured domestic prices
2 min read

Gold records 2nd weekly loss amid hopes of US trade deals with India, China

Gold records second weekly loss as US-China trade progress and Fed rate cut uncertainty weigh on prices. Mumbai gold down Rs 1,649 weekly amid dollar strength.

Gold records 2nd weekly loss amid hopes of US trade deals with India, China
"Elevated risk sentiment continues to offer support to bullion, with key levels seen near Rs 1,18,000 as support and Rs 1,24,000 as resistance. - Jateen Trivedi, LKP Securities"

Mumbai, Nov 1

The price of 24-carat gold (10 grams) dipped by Rs 1,649 on a weekly basis till Saturday, due to fading expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and hopes of US trade deals with India and China.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold dipped Rs 4 on a daily basis on Saturday to Rs 1,20,770, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

The price move at the weekend was also due to weakness in international bullion prices amid a strong dollar.

Bullion has gained 3.9 per cent so far this month, with US gold futures for December delivery trading flat at $4,016.70 per ounce.

Sentiment turned cautious after the US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75 per cent-4 per cent range, but hinted that the rate cut might be the final one in 2025, which dampened hopes of further near-term easing.

Markets are now pricing in a 74.8 per cent probability of a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed in December compared with a 91.1 per cent chance a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said he had agreed with Chinese President Xi Jinping to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on the illicit fentanyl trade, resuming US soybean purchases and keeping rare earths exports flowing.

Analysts however hinted that some uncertainty remains over the durability of the deal. The yellow metal is up around 50 per cent this year, supported by strong central bank demand.

"Elevated risk sentiment continues to offer support to bullion, with key levels seen near Rs 1,18,000 as support and Rs 1,24,000 as resistance. Markets now await clarity on trade balance discussions between the US-China and US-India, which are likely to set the short-term direction," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

Until then, gold is expected to remain volatile within the mentioned range, he added.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

R
Rohit P
As someone who invests in gold ETFs, these fluctuations are concerning. The US Fed decisions and trade deals are making gold too volatile for stable returns. Maybe time to diversify into other assets.
A
Arjun K
Why are our gold prices so dependent on US policies? Shouldn't we have stronger domestic mechanisms to stabilize gold prices? This affects millions of Indian households who consider gold as savings.
S
Sarah B
Interesting analysis. The US-India trade deal could be a game-changer. If it brings more stability to our economy, gold might not be the only safe haven investment option anymore.
V
Vikram M
Still ₹1,20,770 for 10 grams? That's way too high for common people. I remember when gold was ₹25,000 per 10 grams just 15 years back. The inflation in gold prices is unbelievable! 😳
M
Michael C
Good analysis by Jateen Trivedi. The Rs 1,18,000 support level seems crucial. If it breaks, we might see further correction. Technical analysis is becoming increasingly important in gold trading.

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