Pahalgam Attack Anniversary: How India's Strategic Shift Reshaped Counter-Terror Calculus

John Spencer, the Executive Director at the US-based Urban Warfare Institute, stated that India's response signalled a strategic shift that has been unfolding over time, with the government moving beyond diplomatic protest to coordinated actions across multiple domains.

"It suspended key elements of its political engagement with Pakistan tied to the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 agreement governing the division and use of the Indus River system, signalling that even long-standing arrangements are not insulated from Pakistan's support for, or failure to act against, continued cross-border terrorism. That decision introduced a broader form of pressure, linking security behaviour directly to cooperation in areas that had traditionally been treated as separate," the expert detailed.

According to Spencer, the April 22, 2025 terrorist attack by Pakistan-based terror group The Resistance Front (TRF) that killed 26 civilians on religious grounds was a calculated identity-based killing designed to influence perception and behaviour across a much wider audience.

"Tourism in Jammu and Kashmir had become a visible indicator that a degree of stability, opportunity, and normalcy was returning to the region. Families travelling, markets operating, and visitors moving freely signalled something important about the security environment. Attacking tourists and doing so in a way that emphasised religious identity was intended to fracture that perception and reintroduce fear into everyday life," he stressed.

The expert stressed that in response to the terror attack, the Indian military launched Operation Sindoor - a name chosen with clear intent tied directly to the nature of the attack.

"Sindoor, the red mark worn by married Hindu women, carried symbolic weight given that men in Pahalgam had been singled out and killed in front of their wives. The operation linked the response to the violence in a way that made clear what was being answered," he noted.

Indian forces carried out precision strikes against nine terrorist sites linked to the terror outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba and affiliated networks inside Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

Spencer said that the targets were deliberately chosen to degrade infrastructure associated with planning, training, and executing attacks.

"This sequence reflects an emerging approach in India's strategic behaviour. Earlier responses to attacks such as Uri in 2016, when militants killed 19 Indian soldiers at an army base, and Pulwama in 2019, when a suicide bombing killed 40 paramilitary personnel, marked a break from past restraint but remained limited and tightly controlled. Operation Sindoor went further by combining depth, precision, and the integration of military and non-military tools in a more deliberate form of signaling. The objective was not limited to retaliation. It was to reshape expectations about what follows a major terrorist attack," he mentioned.

However, despite sustained pressure, the expert stated, networks tied to LeT and similar groups continue to adapt, regenerate, and sustain their operations.

"Even after Operation Sindoor, security forces continued to uncover improvised explosive devices along infiltration routes and disrupt planned attacks in Jammu and Kashmir. In November 2025, a car bomb exploded near the Red Fort in New Delhi, killing more than a dozen people and injuring many others in what Indian authorities classified as a terrorist attack tied to a broader network with links to Pakistan-based groups," Spencer mentioned.

"The attack was investigated under India's anti-terror laws and viewed by Indian authorities within the broader pattern of cross-border terrorism. This was not an isolated incident but part of a continuing pattern of attacks and disrupted plots aimed at both security forces and symbolic targets," he added.

Emphasising that India's strategic shift is both "real and significant", Spencer said that translating tactical success into lasting change will require sustained operations, continued pressure, and long-term preparation.

- IANS