Key Points

In an interview with ANI, Parsi explained that recent events, including Israel's strikes on Doha (Qatar), have accelerated this shift in perception as well as security dynamics among Gulf states. He noted that while tensions with Iran remain, many Arab states are beginning to reassess their priorities following recent escalations and Israeli operations, particularly the strikes on Doha.

Israel had drawn severe condemnation for its September 9 strike on Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital, Doha.

"It was only a question of time before the GCC states would start to recognise that Israel is a far greater and more likely threat to them than Iran is. Not in the sense that Iran may not be a threat, not that Iran doesn't have the capability, not that they are falling in love with Iran in any way, shape or form. They still have deep suspicions. There are still tensions in many different ways. But it is about what is actually the real immediate threat on the horizon. Whereas that clearly was Iran four years ago. At this point, I think it's clearly Israel," Parsi stated.

Parsi pointed to the recent Doha strikes as a pivotal moment that has exposed vulnerabilities in the US security umbrella provided to Gulf states.

He noted that the Israeli strikes have sent shockwaves through the region, raising questions about the US's role, which provides air defence and military support to several GCC countries.

Parsi argued that such a strike could not have occurred without at least some level of US awareness or involvement, given Washington's control over regional air defence systems.

"It would be very difficult to conceive that the Israelis could have done this without some degree of collaboration with the US. The US provides the air defence systems and the protection for these (Gulf) states. We've seen that the air defence systems are not sufficient to be able to protect against Iran, which was the main reason for all of these countries investing so much in the American security umbrella but now you have a scenario in which either the provider of the security umbrella was incapable of preventing an Israeli attack or, even worse, may have had a finger in the attack or may have actually conspired to attack the country it is supposedly providing a security umbrella for so I think this sends shockwaves through the region," he stated.

Although Qatar has refrained from directly blaming the US, Parsi suggested this is a strategic decision to avoid damaging its vital security relationship with Washington.

Despite the outward appearance of business as usual, Parsi believes many GCC nations will now begin to diversify their defence partnerships, potentially turning to other powers, including China, for arms and security cooperation.

"On the surface, you are not seeing the Qataris blame the US. In fact, they're trying to exonerate the US. This is a calculated move because their concern is that part of the objective of the Israelis was to really destroy the Qatari-American relationship and by getting the Qataris to lash out at the US for a potential role or, at a minimum, that remarkable failure to activate the air defence systems would only play into the hands of the Israelis by making that break more likely. What we are going to see is that on the surface, there's going to be a bit of a pretence that everything is as usual, business as usual. Underneath the surface, you're going to see these countries starting to diversify their security baskets, which could potentially include arms purchases from China," the expert added.

Parsi was referring to a series of airstrikes carried out by Israel targeting Hamas leadership in Doha, marking an unprecedented military action inside the territory of a key US ally and mediator in Gaza ceasefire negotiations.

According to CNN, Israel immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, calling it part of an operation codenamed "Summit of Fire".

According to Hamas, six individuals were killed in the strike, including five of its members. However, the group confirmed that its negotiating delegation survived.

Among those killed were the son of Hamas' chief negotiator Khalil Al-Hayya and the director of his office.

Following the strike, Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the attack, calling it a "cowardly" and "criminal assault" that violated international laws and norms.

Parsi also stood by his recent prediction in Foreign Policy magazine that a second war between Israel and Iran could erupt by the end of 2025.

He also said that while Israel's recent actions may have backfired diplomatically, the underlying tensions remain unresolved, noting that Iran's regional posture and Israel's increasing assertiveness could easily lead to renewed hostilities in the coming months.

"I have not seen any signs that would reassess my view of where we are likely to go. One factor that potentially will complicate this is the fact that the Israelis overreached with their attack on Doha. This has backfired. It does not mean that they will not attack. But the fundamental reasons as to why the Israelis are looking for a second round here are still valid," he further stated.

- ANI