Adani Group's Comeback: Fitch Revises Key Entities to Stable Outlook

According to Fitch, the outlook upgrade reflects low contagion risks across the Adani Group, stronger governance oversight, and continued access to diversified funding sources.

The rating agency observed that both APSEZ and AESL have demonstrated strong financial resilience and operational stability over the past year following earlier outlook downgrades linked to a U.S. Department of Justice indictment of certain Adani board members in November 2024.

Fitch assessed APSEZ's financial profile as stronger than its rating level, constrained only by India's sovereign country ceiling of BBB-.

The agency noted that APSEZ, India's largest commercial port operator, handling about 25 per cent of the nation's seaborne cargo, continues to maintain robust liquidity with a cash balance of around Rs170 billion as of June 2025.

This comfortably covers near-term maturities and capital expenditure requirements.

The port major is expected to maintain EBITDA margins of around 55 per cent, achieve volume growth of 10-15 per cent, and keep leverage below 2.5x (base case) through FY29, supported by strong cash flows and diversified operations across 15 ports nationwide.

For AESL, Fitch affirmed a BBB- rating, citing the company's steady performance in its regulated transmission and distribution (T&D) business. AESL has sustained stable cash flows and strong market access, raising over USD 1.8 billion in new funding since late 2024.

AESL's net leverage is expected to increase to 5.9x in FY26 from 5.1x in FY25 due to rising capex in smart-metering and transmission projects, which are expected to reach around Rs 140 billion.

However, leverage is likely to decline to 5.7x by FY28, supported by higher EBITDA from new project commissioning.

AESL, on a consolidated basis, had a cash balance of around Rs82 billion at end-September 2025, against current maturities of Rs41 billion, including USD 500 million notes due in August 2026, which it plans to refinance by February 2026.

Its subsidiary AEML, which operates electricity distribution in Mumbai, has continued to perform steadily with consistent earnings and reaffirmed BBB- ratings on its senior secured notes.

Fitch also noted that governance risks within the broader Adani Group have significantly eased, with both AESL and AEML maintaining prudent financial policies and adequate liquidity buffers.

The revision of outlooks to Stable from Negative, a reversal from the November 2024 stance, highlight the enhanced credit stability and reduced downgrade risk for the Adani Group's core entities.

- ANI