Key Points

In a detailed conversation with IANS, he discussed possible causes behind the catastrophe and whether it could have been averted. IANS: In your opinion, what could be the possible reasons behind this crash?

S.J. Murlidhar: When we investigate any air crash, we begin with a process of elimination. The first step is to list all possible scenarios on a whiteboard. From natural phenomena to technical issues, everything is considered. In this case, despite the aircraft being a modern Dreamliner with the best-in-class technology, the incident is highly unusual. Airlines do face minor issues--like battery glitches, windshield cracks, or occasional smoke incidents--but those rarely lead to a full-blown catastrophe like this.

IANS: Could this crash have been caused by natural phenomena?

S.J. Murlidhar: That is one possibility. Weather plays a big role in aviation safety. Bad weather, lightning, hailstorms, or even volcanic ash can impact an aircraft. Ash clouds, for instance, can cause engine flameouts. One critical phenomenon is windshear or microbursts, especially during takeoff or landing. These are sudden downdrafts that hit the ground and disperse in all directions. If an aircraft encounters such a microburst during climb-out, it could lose lift dramatically.

IANS: Is there any indication of aircraft system failure?

S.J. Murlidhar: Preliminary observations suggest that the aircraft failed to attain enough speed or lift to sustain flight. That could be either pilot-induced or system-induced. We look at critical speeds during takeoff--like the 100 knots callout and V1 speed (decision speed). If the aircraft cannot rotate and lift-off post-V1, there's no option to abort the takeoff safely. The aircraft in question appears to have barely lifted off, which points to insufficient thrust or improper configuration.

IANS: Could engine failure have played a role?

S.J. Murlidhar: Yes, a delayed or unresponsive engine could be the cause. There was a similar incident at Heathrow involving a Boeing 777 arriving from China. The pilots commanded power during landing, but the engines failed to respond. In the present case, after takeoff, the aircraft did not climb as expected, and the rate of climb was unusually low, suggesting the engines did not perform adequately--despite receiving input from the pilot.

IANS: What about factors like flaps, loading or stabilizer settings?

S.J. Murlidhar: Absolutely. If the flaps are not set properly for takeoff, the aircraft may not generate enough lift. Improper loading and trim sheet errors--which affect the center of gravity--could also compromise flight stability. Though these are rare, they're not impossible. Incorrect stabilizer settings are another factor, but modern aircraft are equipped with warning systems to alert the crew well in time.

IANS: Is controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) a possibility?

S.J. Murlidhar: CFIT usually occurs when a perfectly functional aircraft is unintentionally flown into terrain, like in the 1990s crash of an A320 at Bangalore (VT-EPN). But in this case, the crash occurred right after takeoff, at low altitude. So while CFIT is a known killer in aviation, this particular incident seems more likely to be linked to lack of lift or thrust. But one cannot be so sure till the final report is revealed by the investigators.

IANS: Can sabotage be ruled out?

S.J. Murlidhar: Given the strategic tensions after Operation Sindoor, sabotage cannot be entirely ruled out. Though rare, sabotage involving fuel contamination, explosive devices, or tampering with flight systems has happened in the past. One scenario is contamination of aviation fuel with water or other substances. This prevents proper combustion and can lead to engine failure. That said, so far there's no visual evidence of an explosion, which makes a bombing unlikely--but we must await forensic reports.

IANS: Could this tragedy have been averted?

S.J. Murlidhar: The key to prevention lies in understanding the root cause. That's where the black box comes in. It's not just a recorder; it's a comprehensive diagnostic tool. It logs cockpit conversations, technical data, throttle positions, engine performance, warning systems--everything. Once we retrieve and decode it, we will have clarity.

IANS: When will we know the exact cause?

S.J. Murlidhar: Once the black box--both the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) and Flight Data Recorder (FDR)--is decoded, we'll know what really happened in those critical seconds. Until then, we can only hypothesize based on known data and similar past incidents.

- IANS