Key Points

His party managed to wrest a single seat, fielding 135 candidates in Bihar’s 243 assembly constituencies. He was labelled a vote splinter; his decision upsetting the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) apple cart in around 30 seats.

While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) are the main constituents of NDA, LJP – now LJP (Ram Vilas) – is also part of it, along with others.

But he went his own way in the last Assembly election, and paid the price. However, Chirag bounced back in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when as part of the NDA again, LJP-RV won all the five seats it contested out of the state’s 40.

The BJP and JD (U) got 12 each. In between, his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras, who had claimed the Ram Vilas Paswan legacy and the party, resigned from the cabinet and walked out of the NDA. This gave Chirag a way in to re-establish himself, despite the Assembly rout.

Though Chirag is now publicly not as vocal against Nitish Kumar, he remains critical of the Chief Minister, and reports suggest he may be seeking far more seats than he is being offered in the NDA.

With a few days left before Assembly elections are announced, it may prove another turn in his political journey if he sticks to this decision. For the son to live up to his late father’s legacy, it may be not time yet.

Because, Ram Vilas Paswan had an uncanny sense of the people’s mandate in advance.

He would shift allegiance to the wining alliance even before polling took place, as if anticipating a victory beforehand. Perhaps the absence of that sense, many thought, would lead to a premature end in his political life when the JD (U) that bore his brunt in 2020.

In seats like Khagaria, JD (U) candidate lost to the Congress by 3,000 votes while the then LJP candidate cornered more than 20,000 votes.

In Alauli, Nitish Kumar’s party ended behind the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) candidate by around 2,700 votes, while Paswan’s party got over 26,000 votes.

In Maharajganj, the Congress bettered JD(U) by less than 2,000 votes, and the LJP polled 18,000 votes. In Matihani, where the LJP won its only seat, its candidate beat the JD(U) rival by only 333 votes.

Nitish Kumar’s party slipping below its earlier performance was attributed largely to a split in NDA votes. Contesting 115 seats, it managed to win 43, finishing behind alliance partner BJP (which won 74 of 110).

The principal opposition RJD had ended the race at a pole position, winning 75 of the 144 seats it contested as part of the Mahagathbandhan bloc. In contrast, the JD (U) had clinched 71 assembly seats in the 2015 Assembly election, when it contested in alliance with Lalu Prasad’s RJD.

In the 2020 polls, despite claiming that his loyalty for Prime Minister Narendra Modi was as strong as that of Hanuman for Lord Ram, Chirag’s candidates were alleged to have turned the result even against BJP nominees.

For example, in Bhagalpur, where the Congress nominee scored over BJP by a little over 1,000 votes, the LJP candidate polled over 20,000 votes.

It is learnt that he has demanded about 40 seats for his party this time which, according to some is a result of his confidence after a five-out-of-five-seat show in the last Lok Sabha election.

The young Paswan – an MP from Hajipur – is even contemplating to contest the Assembly election himself, say insiders.

Whatever card he is holding, he is keeping it close to his chest. But for him, jumping off the NDA boat at this moment may not augur too well; considering he has not yet inherited his father’s acumen in political predictions.

- IANS