Weak start to monsoon seen clouding Kharif season outlook: Report
New Delhi, June 21
A comparatively weak start of monsoon in the southwest of India has signalled a negative impact on the agricultural activity with a significant fall in kharif sowing on a year-on-year basis, according to a research report by 360 ONE Capital Research.
Even as sufficient reservoir levels are expected to provide a safe buffer for irrigation, the firm stressed the need for close monitoring given the current pattern of monsoon. It added that a prolonged rainfall deficit may increase pressure on food prices and rural economic activity, but recovery could still support crop prospects.
India's southwest monsoon has begun the 2026 season on a weak note, with rainfall remaining significantly below normal across large parts of the country, 360 ONE Capital Research said.
According to the report, cumulative rainfall as of June 17 stood at 46.2 mm, compared with the normal level of 74.3 mm, representing a deficit of 38 per cent. Weekly rainfall for the period ending June 17 was 48 per cent below the long-period average.
The report highlights that 22 of India's 36 meteorological subdivisions have received deficient rainfall so far this season. At the district level, nearly 66 per cent of the country has experienced scanty or deficient rainfall, underscoring the broad-based nature of the shortfall. Central India has been particularly affected, recording a rainfall deficit of 62 per cent, while eastern India has seen rainfall 44 per cent below normal.
The delayed progress of the monsoon has also begun to affect agricultural activity. "As of June 12, total kharif sowing was reported at 84.6 lakh hectares, down 3.9 per cent from the corresponding period last year. Pulses and cotton have witnessed the sharpest declines, with sowing areas contracting by 43.2 per cent and 28 per cent respectively," according to the report. Rice sowing, however, has shown resilience with a year-on-year increase of 28.4 per cent, albeit from a low base.
Despite weak momentum rainfall, sufficient reservoir levels remains a positive. 360 ONE Capital notes that live reservoir storage as of June 11 was equivalent to 28.3 per cent of total capacity, around 16 per cent above the 10-year average. This provides an important buffer for irrigation needs should rainfall remain uneven in the near term.
According to 360 ONE Capital Research, the current monsoon pattern warrants close monitoring, particularly given its implications for agricultural output, rural incomes, and food inflation. While the season has started significantly below normal, the ultimate impact will depend on rainfall distribution during the critical July-August period, which typically accounts for the bulk of India's seasonal precipitation. A recovery in rainfall could still support crop prospects, while a prolonged deficit may increase pressure on food prices and rural economic activity.
— ANI
Reader Comments
It's alarming to see 66% of districts facing deficient rainfall. I've noticed the heat in Delhi this June is unbearable 😓. This report makes me think about how this will affect our food inflation in the coming months. The poor rural families will suffer the most if kharif sowing doesn't pick up.
I appreciate the report's nuance - saying it's not all doom and gloom because reservoir levels are 16% above average. But as someone who follows agriculture economics, I feel we need to diversify our irrigation systems beyond reservoir dependence. Let's not wait for the July-August rains to save us. Proactive measures like cloud seeding or drip irrigation subsidies could help mitigate this risk.
Living in a city, we rarely think about where our food comes from. But this report is a stark reminder of our dependency on monsoon. The 38% deficit in rainfall is serious - and the impact on rural incomes will eventually hit urban consumers too. I just hope the IMD predictions for July are more accurate this time. 🌧️
A Amit S (traveler in rural UP) Just came back from a trip to eastern UP and farmers there are visibly anxious. They told me that cotton and pulses sowing has dropped dramatically - the 43% decline in pulses is scary for us vegetarians! 😅 On a serious note, we need better water management and crop insurance for our farmers. This is a wake-up call for policymakers. We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.