US Iran Pullback Could Spark More Volatile Regional Phase: Report

"A US pullback would not necessarily mark the end of the crisis. It could mark the start of a more regional, less controllable phase," the report noted.

The briefing cautioned that markets may misread such a move as de-escalation. "The temptation in markets will be to read any US military pullback as de-escalation. That would be far too tidy," it said, adding that "an American step back could mean peace -- but it could just as easily mean that the conflict becomes more regional, more fragmented, and more expensive for the global economy."

It emphasised that a reduction in US military presence would not automatically resolve core disruptions in the region. "A US withdrawal from the front line would remove one escalatory force, but it would not by itself reopen the Strait of Hormuz, halt Israel-Iran strikes, repair damaged energy infrastructure, or restore confidence in energy shipping," the report stated.

Highlighting the strategic importance of global energy routes, the report underlined that "the Strait is not merely a military issue. It is a pricing mechanism for the global economy -- with approximately 20 per cent of global oil shipments normally passing through it."

The analysis further suggested that Washington may prioritise disengagement even amid unresolved disruptions. It noted that the US "may be prepared to live with an unresolved shipping crisis if it can declare operational success and move on."

On likely outcomes, the report said a clear resolution remains unlikely. "The most likely outcome is neither an orderly peace settlement nor outright regional collapse. It is a messy middle," it observed.

It added that while markets may initially respond positively to reduced US involvement, this could be misleading. "Markets will initially cheer the absence of fresh US escalation, only to discover that partial access to Hormuz is not the same thing as restored normality," the briefing said.

- ANI