Indian Markets Eye US-Iran Talks, Q4 Earnings for Next Move

Market participants said that softer crude prices, improving global cues and more stable flows are supporting the recovery this week.

Indian equity markets need a follow‑through buying to confirm a durable uptrend even as easing Middle East tensions support the uptrend, they said.

"Downside risks appear relatively contained in the near term, while upside momentum is gradually building-suggesting a transition from recovery toward a more stable structure, albeit one still dependent on external catalysts," an analyst said.

Continued stability or further moderation in crude prices could provide a meaningful tailwind for equities and support the broader macro outlook.

Markets ended the truncated week with notable gains, extending their uptrend for the second consecutive week, supported by an improvement in global sentiment.

"Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement underpinned market confidence, while stable domestic fundamentals further aided momentum," an analyst said.

Last week, indices remained intermittently volatile, but maintained an upward bias, with broader markets outperforming the frontline indices.

Nifty and Sensex gained over 1 per cent each to close at 24,353 and 78,493, respectively.

A temporary easing of shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, helped Brent crude correct toward the $86 level before stabilising in the $92-93 range.

Foreign institutional investors showed early signs of stabilisation, turning net buyers in the final three sessions of the week.

However, on a cumulative basis, flows remained marginally negative for the week at around Rs 250 crore, causing investors to look for sustained inflows to confirm reversal in sentiments.

In contrast, domestic institutional investors, who had been providing consistent support, turned net sellers in the final sessions, reflecting some profit-taking at higher levels. On a weekly basis, DII outflows stood at approximately Rs 6,300 crore.

Technically, Nifty is consolidating in the 24,100-24,400 range with immediate resistance near 24,400 and support around 24,000. A sustained breakout above this level could extend the rally towards the 24,800-25,000 range, an analyst said.

The 56,800-57,000 band remains a critical resistance zone for Bank Nifty, and only a sustained breakout above this range can push the index towards 57,500-58,000 levels.

Portfolio allocation may remain tilted towards fundamentally strong large-cap stocks, while selectively participating in broader market opportunities, market participants suggested.

Sectorally, energy and metal & mining sectors may continue to outperform, while other sectors could participate on a rotational basis, they forecasted.

On the macro front, infrastructure output data for March will be released on April 20, followed by Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI data for April on April 23, providing insights into economic momentum.

- IANS