UN Chief Warns Global Recession Risk If Hormuz Strait Remains Closed

"As with every conflict, the whole of humanity is paying the price - even if a few are reaping huge profits," he told reporters. "The pain will be felt for a long time to come."

The war's "consequences are not cumulative. They are exponential (and) the longer this vital artery is choked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage", Guterres said as the war and the disruption of the Strait that is a chokepoint for 20 per cent of the world's oil and gas traffic entered the third month.

Iran has blocked free navigation in the Strait in defiance of a March 11 Security Council resolution, and the US has since imposed a blockade of its own targeting Iranian ports.

Negotiations for ending the war have stalled over the two blockades.

The UN, Guterres said, was working to mitigate the situation.

"I have remained in close contact with a number of parties, as has my Personal Envoy Jean Arnault," he said.

Meanwhile, International Maritime Organisation Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez is developing a framework to evacuate ships and seafarers from the conflict zone, Guterres said.

Jorge Moreira da Silva, who is leading the UN Task Force for the Strait of Hormuz, "will be heading to the region to continue his active consultations for a possible humanitarian corridor to be ready if the worst-case scenarios materialise", he said.

Sketching out various scenarios for how the war unfolds, he said that even if it were to end today -- the best outcome, "supply chains will take months to recover, prolonging lower economic output and higher prices".

"This year's global economic growth will still drop -- from 3.4 to 3.1 per cent.[and] global inflation - which had been declining - will climb from 3.8 to 4.4 per cent", he said.

The worst-case scenario of the war continuing till the end of the year, he said, the world will "confront the spectre of a global recession - with dramatic impacts on people, on the economy, and on political and social stability".

In this case, "inflation skyrockets past 6 per cent, growth plummets to 2 per cent, [and] Immense suffering takes hold, especially among the world's most vulnerable populations", he said.

He said that just physically opening the Strait won't be enough, and it will require shipping to be made "safe, predictable, and insurable".

- IANS