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Chanakya Exit Poll Jolts UDF with Tight Kerala Race Projection

Today's Chanakya exit poll has projected a hung house in Kerala, with the UDF at 69 seats and the LDF at 64 seats in a tight contest. Other polls, including Axis My India and People's Pulse, forecast a comfortable UDF majority above 71 seats. The NDA is expected to win 3-11 seats, potentially becoming a kingmaker in a fractured verdict. Vote share estimates show UDF at 40%, LDF at 38%, and NDA at 20%, indicating a highly competitive race.

Key Points: Chanakya Exit Poll: UDF in Tight Kerala Race, Hung House Possible

  • Chanakya projects UDF at 69 seats, just below majority
  • LDF close behind at 64 seats in neck-and-neck contest
  • NDA could win 3-11 seats, potential kingmaker
  • Other polls predict UDF majority of 72-85 seats
  • Vote shares: UDF 40%, LDF 38%, NDA 20%
2 min read

Today's Chanakya Exit Poll jolts UDF with tight Kerala race projection amid majority forecasts

Today's Chanakya exit poll projects a hung house in Kerala, with UDF at 69 seats and LDF at 64, while other polls forecast a comfortable UDF majority.

"The margin between the two fronts, the agency suggests, could be wafer-thin. - Today's Chanakya"

Thiruvananthapuram Apri, l 30

With just days to go for the official results of the Kerala Assembly polls, a surprise projection released on Thursday by Today's Chanakya has injected fresh uncertainty into the state's electoral landscape, unsettling the United Democratic Front camp even as most others predicted a comfortable victory for it.

While pollsters such as Axis My India, People's Pulse, VoteVibe, Matrize and JVC have broadly projected the UDF led by the Congress to cross the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member Assembly, Today's Chanakya has raised the possibility of a hung House.

According to Chanakya's estimates, the UDF may secure 69 seats (+/-9), placing it in the 60-78 range, just on the cusp of a majority.

The Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the Communist Party of India-Marxist, is projected at 64 seats (+/-9), or 55-73 seats, indicating a neck-and-neck contest.

The margin between the two fronts, the agency suggests, could be wafer-thin.

Crucially, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), spearheaded by the Bharatiya Janata Party, is expected to improve its tally to 3-11 seats, potentially emerging as a crucial force in a fractured verdict scenario.

The divergence in projections has become the talking point of the election's final phase.

While most polls give the UDF between 72 and 85 seats, well above the majority threshold, Chanakya's lower-end estimate has raised concerns within the opposition alliance about overconfidence and last-mile voter shifts.

The LDF, though trailing in most surveys, remains within striking distance in this projection, underscoring the competitiveness of the race.

Vote share estimates further reinforce the tightness. Chanakya projects the UDF at 40 per cent (+/-3 per cent), the LDF at 38 per cent (+/-3 per cent), and the NDA at 20 per cent (+/-3 per cent), suggesting that even small swings could decisively alter outcomes across closely fought constituencies.

With every seat now critical, the spotlight shifts to counting day.

Official results will be declared on May 4, and as always with exit polls, the final verdict may yet defy predictions.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

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Priya S
Chanakya always comes up with something different to get attention. But if NDA really gets 11 seats, that could be a game-changer in a hung assembly situation. BJP has been working hard in Kerala, especially in the north. But still, kerala's political DNA is deeply rooted in UDF vs LDF. Difficult to see a third force making big inroads.
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Sarah B
As someone who moved to Kerala from the US a few years ago, I find it fascinating how competitive these elections are. The margin between LDF and UDF is just 2% in vote share according to this poll. That's razor thin! In America, a 2% gap would be considered a landslide in some states. Kerala's voters are clearly very engaged and thoughtful.
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Vikram M
Honestly, I'm tired of these exit polls creating unnecessary confusion. Every election they give different numbers, and then on counting day, reality is something else. The LDF has done decent work in Kerala, especially in welfare schemes and infrastructure. But the anti-incumbency wave is real. UDF has been very aggressive in campaigning. Let's see what happens - but these polls are just stress-inducing for common people like us! 😅
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Rahul R
This Chanakya poll seems off to me. Most other agencies show UDF comfortably above 71, but this one puts them at 69. That's suspicious. Either Chanakya knows something others don't, or they're trying to create a narrative. In 2021, similar divergence happened and the actual result was somewhere in between. Either way, it's going to be a close fight. Kerala deserves a stable government, not a hung assembly with backroom deals.
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