"Tail Wags the Dog": Veteran Diplomat Slams US-Iran Talks, Cites Israeli Clout

Speaking to ANI, Fabian suggested that the relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv remains the primary obstacle to a lasting peace, famously remarking that in this alliance, "the tail wags the dog."

Fabian's analysis provides a sobering perspective on the "make or break" talks, highlighting the internal American political pressures and the technical gaps within the US negotiating team.

Fabian asserted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds an "inexplicable clout" over US President Donald Trump. He credited this influence as the catalyst for the February 28 attacks, which escalated regional tensions.

"Diplomacy is the art of the possible. At this moment, I cannot conceive of the Iranians and the Israelis sitting together in the same room or even the same building, but I don't think that is what is important. It is President Trump who counts. The only issue is that, at times, in the relationship between Israel and the United States, the tail wags the dog. Netanyahu seems to have some clout over Trump that is not easy to explain. My reckoning is that he exercised that clout by starting the war on the 28th of February, but Trump now realizes the rising political costs and is going to assert himself," he said.

Fabian labeled Netanyahu as the "elephant in the room" who actively seeks to prevent the success of the talks. While the President initially succumbed to Israeli pressure, Fabian believes Trump is now forced to negotiate due to the "rising political costs"--specifically the surge in global oil prices.

"Both the US and Iran want success, though for different reasons. President Trump is driven by rising political costs, while Iran is naturally the weaker party in this dynamic. While President Trump may not be able to send them back to the stone ages, the bombing has already caused significant damage and many deaths. If it continues, Iran faces the risk of a Gaza-like state. Prime Minister Netanyahu, however, is the spoiler--the elephant in the room who does not want these talks to succeed. My guess is that the talks will have limited success," he said.

Fabian's sharpest criticisms was directed at the composition of the US delegation. He bemoaned the absence of seasoned State Department professionals in favor of political appointees. He pointed out that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff (a real estate tycoon) lack the technical knowledge required for complex nuclear negotiations.

In a rare note of optimism, Fabian described Vice President JD Vance as a "significant improvement" over the previous family-led diplomatic efforts.

"What is most upsetting is the absence of professional diplomats from the Department of State. In good diplomacy, State Department officials dealing with Iran and West Asia at the level of Joint Secretary or Secretary should have been present. While Trump has a different style, JD Vance is certainly a significant improvement upon Jared Kushner, whose main qualification was being the son-in-law and involved in the family business, and Steve Witkoff, a real estate tycoon. Those two had no idea about technical matters in regard to the nuclear agreement which was negotiated on the 27th of February in Geneva at the embassy of Oman," he said.

According to Fabian, the driving force behind Trump's sudden diplomatic push is not a change of heart, but economic survival. The threat to Strait of Hormuz, vital shipping lane has directly impacted fuel prices.

"If you take Trump's statements over a period of time, they cancel each other out. At this moment, I take it his priority is the Strait of Hormuz because that is what is hurting him. We all know Iran was not making a nuclear weapon; only Trump and Netanyahu spread the story that they were about to make one and that these two have prevented them. Setting that aside, the main accent is on the Strait of Hormuz because therein lies the political cost--specifically, the price the American driver pays at the pump," he said.

A high-level delegations from Iran and the United States arrived for what Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has termed "make or break" negotiations.

- ANI