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Indian Markets Brace for Volatility: Fed Minutes, RBI Signals & IT Woes

Indian equity benchmarks fell sharply, with the Nifty closing below 25,500, driven by weak global cues and AI-related fears impacting the IT sector. The market's direction next week will be dictated by the minutes from the US Federal Reserve and RBI policy meetings, alongside key US GDP data. The IT index was the worst performer, shedding nearly 8% on concerns that AI could disrupt traditional outsourcing demand. Traders are advised to maintain a range-bound strategy with strict stop-losses as commodity trends and Foreign Institutional Investor activity remain critical watchpoints.

Key Points: Stock Market Outlook: Fed, RBI Minutes & FII Flows to Guide Indices

  • Fed policy minutes key for global cues
  • RBI minutes to signal domestic stance
  • IT sector under heavy selling pressure
  • FII flows crucial for market support
2 min read

Stock market outlook: Global cues, policy minutes and FII flows likely to guide indices

Nifty, Sensex fell sharply. Next week's direction hinges on US Fed minutes, RBI policy signals, IT sector trends, and foreign investor activity.

"A decisive break below 25,300 could accelerate downside momentum - Choice Broking"

Mumbai, Feb 15

After a sharp fall in benchmark indices, investors will closely track global and domestic cues next week, including the US Federal Reserve minutes, RBI policy signals, IT sector trends, bullion prices and foreign investor activity, which are likely to decide the direction of the Indian stock market.

Indian stock markets ended sharply lower on Friday, (February 13), weighed down by weak global cues and rising worries over artificial intelligence and its possible impact on the global economy.

The BSE benchmark index fell 1,048 points, or 1.25 per cent, to close at 82,626.76. The broader NSE index also slipped 336 points, or 1.30 per cent, to settle at 25,471.10.

"On the weekly chart, immediate resistance is placed at 25,700. On the downside, strong support is seen at 25,300," Choice Broking said while commenting on Nifty technical outlook.

It added that a decisive break below 25,300 could accelerate downside momentum, while a sustained move above 25,700 may revive bullish sentiment.

"Given the current setup, traders should maintain a range-bound strategy with strict stop-loss discipline," it stated.

Going into the next week, investors will first focus on the minutes of the latest policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which are scheduled to be released on February 18.

Market participants are also awaiting US GDP data for the October-December quarter. Back home, the minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of India will be released on February 20.

The IT sector is likely to remain in focus after witnessing heavy selling pressure this week. The Nifty IT index declined nearly 8 per cent during the week, making it the worst-performing sector.

Heavyweights such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and Wipro came under significant pressure.

Investor concerns have increased that generative and agentic artificial intelligence technologies could reduce demand for traditional outsourcing services, which may affect future earnings visibility for IT companies.

Meanwhile, global commodity trends will also be watched. Gold and silver prices began the week in a consolidation phase after a sharp sell-off earlier that forced leveraged investors to exit long positions.

Foreign institutional investor activity will also play a crucial role. So far in February, FIIs have been net buyers on most trading sessions, supported by improved sentiment after the India-US trade agreement.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

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Priya S
The IT sector fall is worrying. My husband works at Infosys and there's genuine anxiety about AI impacting projects and hiring. The RBI minutes next week are crucial - we need signals on interest rates to plan our home loan EMI. 🤞
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Rohit P
Market experts always say "range-bound strategy with strict stop-loss" after a fall. Easier said than done for retail investors like us! The real cue is the US Fed. If they hint at more rate hikes, brace for more volatility. Our markets dance to their tune.
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Sarah B
Watching from the US perspective. The Fed minutes are key for global markets. Indian IT stocks are a bellwether for tech sentiment worldwide. The AI disruption fear is real, but India's tech talent can adapt. Might be a good entry point for long-term funds.
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Karthik V
Gold prices consolidating is interesting. Many Indian households buy gold during dips for weddings and festivals. If prices fall further, physical demand might pick up, which could support prices. A good time for SIP in gold ETFs maybe?
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Meera T
With respect, articles like this focus too much on short-term noise. For the common saver in India, the lesson is asset allocation and patience. Don't panic because Nifty fell 300 points. Focus on your monthly SIP and sleep well. 📈

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