Southwest Monsoon advance over Maharashtra stalled due to unfavourable conditions: IMD
Mumbai, June 18
The India Meteorological Department on Thursday said the advancement of the Southwest Monsoon over the remaining parts of Maharashtra has remained stalled over the past few days due to the absence of favourable large-scale meteorological conditions.
According to a press release issued by IMD Mumbai, the Southwest Monsoon had advanced over parts of South Konkan and adjoining areas of South Madhya Maharashtra on June 8. However, further progress has been delayed.
The weather office said the current monsoon flow lacks a strong surge from the Arabian Sea, which is generally responsible for enhanced moisture incursion and widespread rainfall supporting further monsoon advancement.
It noted that low-level southwesterly winds associated with the monsoon circulation have weakened over the Arabian Sea, resulting in reduced moisture transport towards the Maharashtra coast and interior regions.
The IMD also said the cross-equatorial flow over the western Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, a major source of moisture for the Southwest Monsoon, has weakened in the recent period, leading to a reduction in monsoon activity.
Further, the department stated that significant monsoon weather systems, including low-pressure areas or cyclonic circulations over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, as well as an offshore trough of sufficient intensity along the west coast, are currently absent.
According to the IMD, prevailing large-scale circulation patterns, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), do not presently indicate strong support for monsoon advancement over the remaining parts of Maharashtra.
As a result, rainfall activity over most parts of the state is likely to remain isolated during the next four to five days, the weather office said.
The IMD added that current numerical weather guidance suggests an increase in rainfall activity over the Konkan belt around June 24-25.
The department said synoptic conditions are being continuously monitored for any change that may support further advancement of the Southwest Monsoon over Maharashtra.
— ANI
Reader Comments
The IMD analysis is thorough but the waiting is frustrating. The lack of a strong monsoon surge and weak cross-equatorial flow are key factors. Hopefully, the MJO phase will become favorable soon. We need those low-pressure systems in the Arabian Sea to intensify.
This is concerning for water supply in the region. Maharashtra's reservoirs are already below average. The monsoon's sluggish start could affect drinking water availability and summer crops if the delay extends. Let's hope the IMD's forecast for increased activity around June 24-25 materializes.
As a farmer in Sangli, this news is worrying. The lack of rainfall is delaying our sowing operations for kharif crops like soybean and pulses. We depend on the monsoon. The government should prepare contingency plans for water-scarce talukas if the delay persists. 🙏
Interesting how the IMD mentions the MJO—that's a significant factor often overlooked in everyday discussions. The stalled monsoon is a classic example of how global and local weather systems interact. Meanwhile, cities like Mumbai might face heat and humidity without the usual cooling rains.
It's good that the IMD is transparent about why the monsoon has stalled. The explanation about weakened southwesterlies and lack of offshore trough makes sense. But I wish they could provide more localized forecasts for districts like Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg, which depend on early monsoon.
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