Russia, China Gain as West Asia Conflict Reshapes Global Energy, Finance

The report noted that the surge in global oil prices following the escalation in tensions has strengthened Russia's position in the global energy market. With oil prices rising sharply, Russia stands to gain from increased energy revenues.

At the same time, China is benefiting from relatively stable domestic markets, which allow it to strengthen its financial system while other economies face uncertainty and volatility.

Jefferies stated that the geopolitical situation has also eased concerns for India regarding the purchase of Russian oil.

According to the report, "In terms of the chief beneficiaries, Russia has to be one of them, given the rise in the oil price and given that it is suddenly no longer a problem for India to be buying Russian oil again. Another beneficiary is clearly China."

The report further observed that China's policy direction also indicates a long-term strategy to support its domestic financial markets. In Shanghai, Jefferies observed that the "slow bull market" remains the guiding mantra of the central government with regard to the stock market. The goal, it said, is for the stock market to gradually replace the deflating property market as the primary source of wealth generation for Chinese households.

Meanwhile, the report warned that prolonged disruption in global energy routes could have damaging long-term consequences. It highlighted that the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater the potential impact on global energy markets and supply chains.

Jefferies also pointed to the United States' decision on Wednesday to release up to 172 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserve beginning next week.

The report described this move as an example of a lack of strategic planning, noting that no effort was made earlier to replenish the reserve prior to the attack.

Currently, the US holds 415 million barrels of oil in its strategic reserve, which is about 58 per cent of the maximum capacity of 714 million barrels. This is significantly lower than the 656 million barrels recorded in July 2020.

The report suggested that this situation reflects a degree of overconfidence in energy planning, which has not been justified by developments on the ground since the conflict began.

Jefferies also noted that the decision to attack Iran carries significant political risks for US President Donald Trump. According to the report, negative polling suggests the move could prove politically damaging.

It added that some analysts are comparing the situation to America's potential "Suez moment", referring to a retreat from global influence similar to the fallout faced by former British Prime Minister Anthony Eden after the Suez Crisis.

- ANI