US Official Warns of New Nuclear Powers Emerging in 5-10 Years

Former US National Security official Jon Finer warns that declining confidence in traditional security guarantees, particularly from the United States, could lead several countries to pursue nuclear weapons within the next decade. He specifically highlights that countries in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe feeling under threat may seek their own arsenals or protection under another nation's nuclear umbrella, like France's expanded offer. Finer points to the dynamic between Iran and Saudi Arabia, suggesting Riyadh would seriously consider nuclear weapons if Tehran pursued them. He also reiterates concerns about Pakistan's ongoing development of a long-range missile program.

Key Points: New Nuclear Powers Could Emerge in Decade, Warns US Official

  • Global security shifts may spur nuclear proliferation
  • Doubts over US commitments could drive allies to seek weapons
  • France expanding its nuclear umbrella offer
  • Saudi Arabia's interest linked to Iran's program
  • Pakistan's ICBM program a long-term concern
4 min read

"Over next 5-10 years, you are likely to see emergence of new nuclear powers": Former US NSA official Jon Finer

Former US NSA official Jon Finer warns shifting global security could lead to new nuclear-armed states in 5-10 years, citing Middle East and Asia.

"I think sometime over the next five or 10 years, you are likely to see the emergence of new nuclear powers - Jon Finer"

New Delhi, March 5

Jon Finer, former Principal Deputy National Security Adviser of the United States, has warned that the global nuclear landscape could change significantly in the coming decade, with the possible emergence of new nuclear-armed states.

In an interview with ANI on Thursday, Finer said changing global security dynamics and declining confidence in traditional security arrangements could encourage several countries to pursue nuclear capabilities.

"Well, to be honest, I think it began long before this crisis. But this conflict will further drive home the point exactly what you made, that many countries have decided they don't need nuclear weapons because they are content to live under what we call the United States nuclear umbrella," he said.

Finer explained that if countries begin to doubt Washington's commitment to protecting allies, the situation could change rapidly.

"The more the United States demonstrates less commitment to defending partners and allies around the world, the more countries that feel under threat, and by the way, those countries are likely to be in the Middle East, in Asia, in Europe, will believe they need some sort of additional protection, whether it's living under another country's nuclear umbrella," he said.

He noted that alternative security arrangements are already being discussed.

"France is now offering to extend its nuclear umbrella further than it has before, or to obtain these weapons themselves, as a whole host of countries are contemplating. I think sometime over the next five or 10 years, you are likely to see the emergence of new nuclear powers because of these dynamics," he said.

Responding to a question about reports of Pakistan potentially providing nuclear support to Saudi Arabia, Finer said such possibilities had been discussed in the past.

"That is something that has been widely reported to have been contemplated in the past. You know, we'll see," he said.

When asked about the security partnership between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, he said nuclear cooperation had not been explicitly ruled out.

"Look, I don't think they took nuclear out of that partnership explicitly. Yeah. But, you know, at this point, I think the main driver of Saudi Arabia's desire to potentially someday have a nuclear weapon was whether Iran would obtain a nuclear weapon," he said.

Finer also spoke about developments related to Iran's nuclear programme.

"It does look like, for the time being, very unlikely in the near term that Iran is going to be able to obtain a nuclear weapon, just given the condition of its nuclear program and its military. Should Iran go back down the nuclear path, which, by the way, you could argue, would be rational for them to do? Countries that have nuclear weapons do not tend to be attacked in the way that Iran has been attacked over the last year. I think Saudi Arabia would very seriously look at nuclear weapons in that situation," he said.

Speaking about Pakistan's missile programme, Finer reiterated concerns he had previously raised while in government.

"Yeah, I mean, I said when I was in the government that Pakistan was developing an ICBM program that could ultimately reach the United States," he said.

"By the way, not a totally different concern than the one that the current Trump administration is expressing about Iran, which is also in the process of developing a long-range missile program and has been for some years," he added.

However, he noted that the programme may still take years to materialise.

"But my understanding, you know, I'm not subject to or privy to all the intelligence here, my understanding is that program is still a number of years from being successfully completed, if it's ever successfully completed," he said.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

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Sarah B
The point about the US nuclear umbrella is key. If allies start doubting American commitment, the domino effect begins. For India, our policy has been one of strategic autonomy, which looks wiser every day. We cannot rely on any external security guarantees.
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Rohit P
The mention of Pakistan's potential ICBM program and nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia is deeply troubling. The international community, especially the P5, needs to enforce non-proliferation norms strictly. Double standards have created this mess. 🇮🇳
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Anjali F
While the warning is valid, I respectfully disagree with the framing that makes it seem inevitable. Diplomacy and strong global institutions can still prevent this. We need to revive dialogue on nuclear disarmament, not just accept a more armed world. The article focuses too much on the problem and not enough on solutions.
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Karthik V
The Iran-Saudi dynamic he mentions is a powder keg. If one goes nuclear, the other will follow. This directly impacts Indian energy security and the safety of our diaspora in the Gulf. Our foreign policy has to navigate these choppy waters very carefully.
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James A
A sobering read. It highlights how fragile the global non-proliferation regime is. Countries act in their perceived national interest. For India, maintaining a robust second-strike capability and continuing our no-first-use policy is the right path. We must be prepared for a more multipolar and nuclearized world.

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