ORF's 2026 Megatrends Report: Global South's Pivotal Role in Shifting World Order

ORF scholars engage with these megatrends as lived realities and argue that Megatrends do not unfold in isolation; they are mediated by leadership, institutions, and ideas.

in an essay titled 'Geopolitics, Defence and Security-Turbulence Ahead' Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) America, along with contributions from Pratnashree Basu, Kartik Bommakanti, Lindsey Ford, and Kabir Taneja, outlined five major geopolitical megatrends expected to shape 2026 in the domains of geopolitics, defence, and security, amid turbulence from the re-election of US President Donald Trump.

Setting out this assessment, Jaishankar highlighted the impacts of Trump's policies, including high tariffs disrupting global trade, US retrenchment from multilateral arrangements, and efforts to end conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza while showing reduced restraint in using force, such as strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and operations in Latin America. He noted that China and Russia are expected to continue expanding their "no limits" partnership declared in 2022 through new technological and operational coordination, despite US attempts to engage them separately.

In practical terms, this includes military-technical cooperation, joint exercises with wider geographical remit, and evidence of Russia training Chinese paratroopers, accelerating China's military modernisation goals. The brief also cited Venezuela's assertive claims over Guyana, alignments in Argentina and El Salvador with Trump-era policies, and Brazil and Peru's economic ties with China, alongside the global race for critical minerals engaging Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru.

"The global race for critical minerals is set to engage Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru," the research observed.

Placing these developments in a broader context, the paper emphasised that while other dynamics such as the war in Ukraine, conflicts in Africa, and developments in the Middle East persist, these five trends, the Russia-China axis, the continued growth of bilateral and minilateral arrangements, a more turbulent Latin America, competition in new technological domains and regions, and the reemergence of nuclear weapons, are likely to constitute major trends to monitor in 2026.

In their research paper, A year of rebalancing-Geoeconomics and Trade, Anit Mukherjee, Dhruba Purkayastha, Arya Roy Bardhan, Srijan Shukla, and Jhanvi Tripathi argue that countries of the Global South with large critical mineral reserves such as Indonesia and Mexico will leverage their access to natural resources in exchange for lower tariffs and greater investment in domestic processing and manufacturing sectors, capitalizing on the US-China geoeconomic competition to their advantage. The geoeconomic impact of tariffs is expected to play out in two key ways: an increase in trade across the Global South and greater attention on the corridors and infrastructure that connect them.

The research states that the Global South countries will need to guard against the flood of imported manufacturing goods from China, safeguarding their national interests through industrial policies aimed at protecting and creating jobs. At the same time, it presents an opportunity for the Global South to take advantage of the turmoil. The rules of rebalanced globalization remain in the process of being defined. How Global South countries respond to Washington and Beijing with their own geoeconomic initiatives in 2026 is likely to shape the future global economic order.

A research brief, 'Brave New World-Technology' by Anirban Sarma, Sauradeep Bag, Anulekha Nandi, Prateek Tripathi, and Siddharth Yadav argues that Artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, digital currencies, and nanotechnology represent afrontier where technology, power, and the political economy increasingly converge.

The paper states that as 2026 advances, countries are expected to strengthen national AI capabilities as competition between the US and China intensifies. The need to achieve greater alignment and harmonization of AI policies at the global level is likely to grow stronger. Two particular risks are expected to escalate further. The first is the exponential spread of AI-generated disinformation and the second is the alarming growth of AI systems' energy footprints,11 which may eventually necessitate a transition to more sustainable and energy-efficient solutions.

The paper states that the field of quantum computing is expected to benefit from greater investment, and see a shift: from pursuing increased qubit counts towards finding a wider range of practical applications, and making quantum computers commercially available. 2026 is also expected to witness the use of digital currencies becoming more entrenched in certain regions, and facilitate potentially smoother remittance transfers and cross-border trade across pockets of the Global South. Nanotechnology will begin to play a decisive role in shaping the future of materials, with specific nanotechnologies such as spintronics emerging as central to innovation and investment.

A research brief, 'Climate and Energy-Transitions' by Mannat Jaspal, Parul Bakshi, Cauvery Ganapathy, Lydia Powell, and Piyush Verma argues that 2026 megatrends are not necessarily novel but are a pronounced manifestation of patterns shapedby years of policy inaction and neglect across the global energy and climate landscape.

Energy sovereignty, securitized supply chains, and digital-era power demand will be the buzzwords dominating the discourse. For the Global South, the coming years will depend on balancing industrial competitiveness, affordability, and equity within this contested climate architecture. The paper says that how countries navigate this delicate balance between ecarbonization and development will shape its pace and progress.

A research on, 'Agriculture, Health, and Urbanization' by Nilanjan Ghosh. Ramanath Jha, Oommen C. Kurian, Soma Sarkar, and Shoba Suri argues that the interconnected and uncertain trajectories of agriculture, health, and urbanization converge intocomplex challenges. Understanding them requires a systems-thinking approach, one that acknowledges feedback loops, cascading risks, and the interdependence of human, ecological, and economic systems.

The research argues that demographic shifts and consumption patterns sustain the cycle. All these highlight the Global South's structural dilemma, mobilizing resources without entrenching dependency or asymmetry. Going forward, stronger Global South cooperation, driven by the post-COP30 momentum and India's BRICS presidency in 2026, may enable the pooling of knowledge, finance, and technology to jointly advance resilient agriculture, equitable health systems, and sustainable urbanization, reshaping shared development pathways in 2026.

In their research on, 'Education, Skills, Labor, and Immigration', Sunaina Kumar, Soumya Bhowmick, Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury, Arpan Tulsyan, and Manish Vaidya argue that in 2026, several trends are becoming more evident. In education, digital technology and AI are expected to widen access and personalize learning. In skilling, the advance of Industry 4.0 is expected to increase demand for advanced technical capabilities.

The paper argues that In labor markets, platform work is projected to expand further, creating new jobs while underscoring the need for stronger protections for workers. In immigration, South-South mobility is expected to rise further as climate stresses, economic fragility, and conflict intensify. By reorienting national priorities to these shifts and aligning these priorities with deeper regional cooperation, the Global South may build shared frameworks that reflect its diverse realities and aspirations.

ORF scholars say the Global Quarterly provides readers and policy analysts with perspectives that are unique and valuable, outlining risks and opportunities in ways that help them understand, prepare for, and navigate the year ahead.

- ANI