Nepal's Political Showdown: Oli vs Balen in Jhapa-5 Electoral Battle

In earlier elections, Oli would travel extensively, addressing mass rallies around the country and positioning himself as a central figure who could win votes nationwide. This will mark Oli's eighth electoral contest in Jhapa, where he was first elected 34 years ago. But now, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) chairman is "confined to his own constituency", reflecting the changing dynamics, according to a report in Kathmandu Post.

"After Balendra Shah, popularly called Balen, resigned as Kathmandu mayor to contest against Oli in Jhapa-5, the latter has hardly had time to travel to other places to canvass votes for his fellow comrades," it observed this week.

Balen was the first independent candidate to be elected as mayor of the capital, serving as the 15th mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City from May 2022 until his resignation in January this year.

Oli was the Prime Minister in the UML-Nepali Congress coalition government at the time of last year's youth uprising, which reports claimed resulted in at least 19 deaths, and more than 300 injuries in clashes with the police.

After the resignation of Oli in September 2025 amid the anti-government protests, Balen emerged as a face being backed by some of the Gen Z protestors.

Known for expressing "explosive opinions" mostly through social media, he boasts of lakhs of followers on his handles. Balen stood in support of the Gen Z protestors and started trending after the government rolled back the ban on social media platforms.

Several users on social media chose him as representing the "voice of a new generation", adding that he would work for the "good of the country without personal interest", said reports last year. During his tenure as mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, Balen was locked in his fiercest confrontation with the CPN-UML, according to a report on Nepal's Republica news website last month.

"The clashes frequently spilt onto social media, where Balen launched sharp, often biting satire against UML Chair KP Sharma Oli. Oli, for his part, responded with open anger from public platforms," it said.

"That long-running war of words has now shifted from rhetoric to the electoral arena. By joining the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Balen has entered Oli's traditional stronghold - Jhapa Constituency-5. Rallying forces described as 'alternative,' the RSP has projected Balen as a potential future prime minister. The contest has thus taken on larger symbolism: a face-off between Oli, the standard-bearer of the old political order, and Balen, the most prominent figure among the new forces - making it the most closely watched battle of the March 5 House of Representatives (HoR) election," it added.

Jhapa-5 constituency was described in the report as "a bastion of communist voters, and long regarded as Oli's political fortress", where "Oli's record of commanding, often one-sided victories in recent elections presents a formidable hurdle for Balen," it opined.

However, the report also said that Balen's opening in Oli's fortress appears to lie in the "swing vote" visible in 2023.

This time, 163,379 voters are registered in Jhapa-5, where their verdict will not only decide the outcome of a high-voltage showdown but could also shape the political trajectory of both leaders.

- IANS