Negotiators in Islamabad, divide in Tehran; Analysts flag fractured Iran top brass
Washington, DC, April 25
A new assessment by the US-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, has revealed that Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi and his "inner circle" have "repeatedly blocked attempts" by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and other "pragmatist" officials to push the Iranian regime toward a "more flexible negotiating position."
According to the ISW, Vahidi appears to have "prevailed in this internal power struggle" and is set to shape the regime's approach toward negotiations and the war with a "maximalist and uncompromising stance." The assessment further suggests that Ghalibaf "likely lacks the leverage to alter this trajectory in a meaningful way at this time."
ISW says that reports indicating that Ghalibaf may resign from the negotiating team are "consistent with ISW-CTP's assessment that Vahidi has emerged as the winner of the intra-regime rivalry." Quoting sources to Western media, ISW said that Ghalibaf has "grown frustrated with internal divisions" and has considered resigning, while some outlets claim he has "already resigned from the negotiating team due to disagreements over nuclear concessions."
ISW analysis says, that while "pragmatist" officials may continue to advocate for flexibility, the ISW notes their efforts are "unlikely to meaningfully shape regime decision-making in the near term." Vahidi's apparent victory is expected to have "significant implications for potential future US-Iran negotiations," as he has shown a "greater willingness than 'pragmatist' officials to accept the risk of renewed conflict with the United States."
The report of a fractured leadership in Tenhran follows the Iranian government public messaging of unity on Friday. Iran's leadership posted a picture of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Iranian Parliament Speaker MB Ghalibaf, and Head of the Judiciary of Iran, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and said that the nation is united despite the claims made by the US suggesting otherwise.
The man in the eye of the storm MB Ghalibaf also posted a message of unity amongst Iran's top leadership.
"In Iran, there are no radicals or moderates; we are all "Iranian" and "revolutionary," and with the iron unity of the nation and government, with complete obedience to the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, we will make the aggressor criminal regret his actions. One God, one leader, one nation, and one path; that path being the path to victory for Iran, dearer than life," he said,
This internal shift comes as Iran and the United States send delegations to meet with Pakistani mediators in Islamabad. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived on April 24, while US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are set to travel to Islamabad on April 25. Sources told Axios that a "trilateral meeting" between Araghchi, Witkoff, and Kushner could take place following separate bilateral discussions.
— ANI
Reader Comments
Typical Washington think-tank analysis – always looking for divisions in Iran. But Ghalibaf's statement about national unity shows they're putting up a strong front. The West keeps trying to paint Iran as fractured, but they've survived decades of sanctions and pressure. Meanwhile, US envoy Witkoff going to Islamabad while telling us to reduce Russian oil imports? Hypocrisy much? 🤦♀️
As someone who follows Middle East politics, the Vahidi-Ghalibaf rivalry is real and significant. The IRGC has always been the power behind the throne in Iran. If Vahidi, a guy literally designated as a terrorist by the US, is winning the internal tussle, then any US-Iran breakthrough is dead on arrival. Pakistan hosting talks is a smart move by Islamabad to boost their diplomatic relevance.
Look at America running to Pakistan for help negotiating with Iran, while they keep lecturing India about everything under the sun! 😂 The world is a funny place. But seriously, a fractured Iranian leadership is bad news for regional stability. We need Iran to be strong and united, not splintered into factions. Chabahar port development will suffer if there's internal chaos. India should quietly engage with all sides in Tehran.
ISW analysis is usually quite credible, but we must remember it's a US-based institute with its own biases. That said, the internal power dynamics in Iran are no secret – the IRGC has always been the more hardline element. If Ghalibaf is really considering resignation, it shows the pragmatists have lost. India needs a diversified strategy: keep investing in Chabahar but also hedge with other trade routes. Don't put all eggs in one basket. 💡
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