Kazakhstan headed for Chinese debt trap amid surge in borrowing
New Delhi, June 2
Kazakhstan has been resorting to heavy borrowing from China over the last three years and has piled up a huge debt with the communist country that is expected to grow further, a report has said.
The trend of aggressive borrowing from China started in 2025, when Kazakhstan obtained over $3.5 billion in credit, increasing the country's total debt to the PRC to $12.87 billion, according to a report in New York-headquartered Eurasianet.
"Over the previous three years, the debt total had barely budged, standing at $9.29 billion at the end of 2024, $9.25 billion in 2023 and $9 billion in 2022," the report stated.
Astana's debt total appears likely to keep rising. In late May 2026, Kazakhstan's government launched "panda bonds," yuan-denominated securities sold within mainland China's domestic bond market, with placement volume at 3.4 billion yuan (over $500 million), a maturity of three years and a coupon rate of 1.9 percent per annum.
China's national rating agency assigned Kazakhstan the highest sovereign credit rating of "AAA" with a "stable" outlook, further boosting the Central Asian nation's ability to obtain more Chinese credit on favourable terms, the report points out.
It also states that in late 2025, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced an ambitious economic program to foster a "cognitive economy" in Kazakhstan. Much of the state borrowing is expected to go towards funding the county's digital transformation.
The second Chinese Luban workshop in Kazakhstan has opened in Astana, with a third projected to open later this year, reports DK News. Luban workshops are Chinese soft-power instruments that offer vocational training in 30 countries worldwide.
In Central Asia, some observers say that Beijing is hoping the Luban workshops can help ease public wariness about China's growing economic presence in the region. "In the wake of mounting public backlash against its growing influence in Central Asia, China is betting on vocational education to reshape perceptions," stated a recent an analysis published by the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.
However, the article highlights that some aspects of Kazakh-Chinese relations are showing strains. The Kazakh General Prosecutor's Office has launched an investigation into an incident where about 80 Chinese nationals working for the Xin Yuan Stil metallurgical plant in Shymkent were arrested.
Law enforcement officers claimed that they were conducting an investigation at the plant after receiving a report that a foreign citizen was being illegally detained there. This was not confirmed, but during the investigation, authorities allegedly identified foreigners who lacked work authorization documents.
Among them were two Chinese investors who were planning to invest $30 million in the development and expansion of the metallurgical plant, reports Ulys Media. The plant's management also has alleged massive financial damages because the plant was forced to cease operations due to the incident, the article added.
— IANS
Reader Comments
The "debt trap diplomacy" is real. First Sri Lanka, then Pakistan, now Kazakhstan. China offers attractive interest rates but the conditions are always problematic. The Luban workshops look like soft power to mask the growing economic control. We need alternative partnerships for Central Asia.
While I understand the concern about Chinese influence, the $12.87 billion debt is relatively small compared to Kazakhstan's GDP. The "cognitive economy" plan sounds promising if executed well. But the arrest of Chinese workers without proper documents shows governance issues on both sides.
This is exactly why India needs to strengthen its Connect Central Asia policy. We should offer alternative credit lines and technology partnerships to countries like Kazakhstan. The panda bond interest rate of 1.9% is tempting, but they're tying themselves to the yuan. 😬
The Luban workshops sound like a smart move by China to build goodwill. India has so much to offer in terms of IT and digital transformation that Kazakhstan wants - we should be setting up similar training centers there. Missing the bus as usual? 😕
Respectfully, I think some comments here are overplaying the 'China threat'. Kazakhstan is a sovereign nation making its own choices. The AAA rating shows confidence. But yes, India should engage more proactively - our cultural ties with Central Asia go back centuries, and we're wasting that advantage.
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.