IRGC Hardliners Seize Control of Iran's Military and Diplomacy, Sidelining Moderates

IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle have allegedly assumed leadership of the Islamic Republic. This internal power shift is underscored by recent maritime hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran's decision to bypass scheduled peace negotiations with the United States.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that this transition signals the sidelining of more moderate figures, such as Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi. While Araghchi had tentatively agreed to reopen the strategic waterway following discussions with the Trump administration, the IRGC overruled the move, insisting the strait remain closed to counter the American blockade of Iranian ports.

The New York Post reported that Vahidi secured crucial support from Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, an IRGC veteran and current Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. This alliance has solidified Vahidi's authority over the chokepoint, where fast attack ships now comprise the bulk of Iran's naval presence after conventional forces suffered heavy losses in recent conflicts.

Tensions escalated over the weekend as Iran targeted at least three vessels attempting to navigate the strait. The move has left hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, reinforcing the IRGC's message that the oil route remains under its strict blockade.

The influence of the Vahidi-Zolghadr partnership extends directly into the diplomatic sphere. Earlier this month, Zolghadr was integrated into the Iranian delegation specifically to ensure compliance with the mandates of the IRGC and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

According to The New York Post, the ISW highlighted internal friction within the delegation. "Zolghadr sent a complaint to senior IRGC leaders, almost certainly including Vahidi, that Araghchi had surpassed his mandate during the negotiations by expressing flexibility regarding Iran's support for the Axis of Resistance," the think tank observed.

This internal dissent reportedly triggered a wider crackdown. "Zolghadr's anger caused senior leaders in Tehran, including former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief and long-time member of Mojtaba's inner circle, Hossein Taeb, to call the negotiating delegation back to Tehran," the ISW added.

The report by The New York Post further suggests that Vahidi has emerged as the primary decision-maker alongside Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not made a public appearance since sustaining injuries in airstrikes that killed his predecessor.

This hierarchy effectively places the IRGC above officials like Araghchi and Parliament leader Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Although both have employed anti-Western rhetoric, they are viewed as moderates compared to the current military leadership.

The ISW notes that this power dynamic severely hampers any meaningful engagement with the West, as Araghchi and Ghalibaf lack the "leverage or formal executive authority to shape decision-making."

The New York Post highlighted that these developments also challenge assertions from Washington that the Iranian regime had been reformed following the loss of high-ranking officials during the war.

With no timeline established for the resumption of talks, the stability of the region remains uncertain. It is yet to be determined if the current, fragile ceasefire will be maintained beyond the deadline set for Tuesday.

- ANI