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India's US Trade Surplus May Surge Past $90 Billion, Says SBI Report

An SBI Research report projects India's annual trade surplus with the United States could surpass $90 billion, driven by potential export increases of up to $100 billion. The report highlights India's strategic gains from recent trade deals with the US, EU, and UK without significant concessions. It downplays concerns that a new US-Bangladesh trade agreement will harm Indian textile exporters, estimating a potential loss of only about $1 billion. The report also notes the significant opportunity presented by the EU's $260 billion textile market opening to Indian goods with zero duty.

Key Points: India-US Trade Surplus to Cross $90B, SBI Report Says

  • Surplus may cross $90B annually
  • Exports to US could rise by $100B
  • Minimal impact from US-Bangladesh deal
  • EU opens $260B textile market
2 min read

India's trade surplus with US may cross $90 billion, no impact from Bangladesh deal: SBI

SBI Research forecasts India's trade surplus with the US could exceed $90 billion annually, with minimal impact from the US-Bangladesh trade deal.

"Indian exporters may increase their exports of top 15 items to the US by $97 billion in a year. - Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh"

New Delhi, Feb 12

India's trade surplus with the US may cross $90 billion annually after the trade deal, with at least a $45 billion annual additional trade surplus with the US, which is 1.1 per cent of the GDP, and savings of $3 billion in forex reserve, an SBI Research report said on Thursday.

The trade deal with the US, back on the heels of wide arc of trade deals with the EU and the UK, catapults India to a unique strategic position wherein the country, as also its exporters, are poised to gain much, without ceding meaningful ground on matters of sensitivities, said the report.

"As per our preliminary estimates, Indian exporters may increase their exports of top 15 items to the US by $97 billion in a year. Including the remaining items the potential may easily cross $100 billion mark," said Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.

Also, the US has yearly potential of more than $50 billion imports in India (ex services).

India's trade surplus with US was $40.9 billion in FY25, $26 billion in FY 26 (April-December) and it could cross $90 billion annually, said Ghosh.

Moreover, on the US-Bangladesh deal, the report said the US imports around $7.5 billion of textile imports from India and around the same quantity from Bangladesh; however, the share of different items imported from the two countries are different.

For instance, US imports more of apparel (not knitted) from Bangladesh while other made-up textiles account for higher amount imported from India.

The recent trade deal between US-Bangladesh has reduced the tariffs on Bangladesh goods to 19 per cent.

However, a certain clause that allows certain quantity of textile and apparel goods from Bangladesh imported at zero reciprocal tariff rate depending on the quantity of cotton and man-made fibre textile inputs imported from US has raised suspicion that it can harm Indian textile exporters as Bangladesh's imports could become more competitive for the US.

"However, the cost of importing from the US would be much higher than importing from India, thus it may not dilute India's competitive advantage," said the report.

If the US cotton replaces 10 per cent of our cotton exports and 2 per cent of our man-made fibres exports to Bangladesh, then India would lose a minuscule $1 billion.

"Also, the latest deal with the EU has opened up $260 billion textile market with zero duty over textile imports from India," the report noted.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

P
Priyanka N
Good to see the SBI report is optimistic, but I hope this surplus translates into real benefits for small and medium exporters, not just the big corporates. The $3 billion forex saving is a big plus.
R
Rahul R
The Bangladesh deal part is interesting. They say it won't hurt us much, but we should keep a close watch. Our textile sector employs millions. Can't afford any shocks, even a "minuscule $1 billion" loss.
A
Ashwin V
Respectfully, while the numbers look great, I'm concerned about the long-term. Are we becoming too dependent on the US market? We need to diversify our export destinations more aggressively, especially in Africa and Latin America.
K
Kavya N
The EU deal opening a $260 billion textile market with zero duty is the real game-changer! That's where our focus should be. Made in India is getting a global platform. 👏
M
Michael C
As someone observing from outside, India's trade diplomacy seems very sharp. Securing deals with the US, EU, and UK without "ceding meaningful ground" is a masterstroke in negotiation. The $100 billion export potential figure is staggering.

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