India's Economic Future Lies With West, Not BRICS: Natixis Economist

Speaking with ANI, Nguyen noted that India's strongest growth prospects lie in deeper economic engagement with the US and Europe, regions where India already runs large trade surpluses.

"I argue that it (India) should grow where it can, but it should grow the fastest where there are the highest margins and more comparative advantage. And it lies in the West," she said.

In August 2025, when US tariffs on India took effect, she conducted an analysis, finding that India has trade deficits with most BRICS countries and trade surpluses with the US and the EU.

She illustrated this point with trade data from recent years, showing that India's exports to the US alone exceed its exports to all BRICS countries combined. When the European Union is added, exports to the West are roughly double those to BRICS as a bloc.

Notably, with both the US and the EU, India now has a trade deal.

The EU FTA and now the US-India trade deal, she said, show that India is moving westward.

Referring to India's trade deficit with China, Nguyen argued that this asymmetry makes India's economic relationship with China fundamentally different from its relationship with the West.

In Western markets, India is more complementary than competitive, she asserted. As Nguyen noted, comparative advantage remains relevant: Western consumers seek affordable goods, and India is well-positioned to supply them.

By contrast, most Asian economies either compete directly with India in similar sectors or already run trade surpluses against it.

Nguyen emphasised that her argument does not imply India should abandon the Global South or emerging-market partnerships. India should expand exports wherever possible, including to BRICS, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East.

However, she stressed that growth will be fastest and margins highest in markets where India faces less direct competition and greater demand complementarities, namely the US and Europe.

Russia, another key BRICS partner, was cited as an example of geopolitical importance but limited economic scale. Despite strong energy ties, Nguyen described Russia's economy as relatively small in trade and investment terms, noting that even substantial percentage growth would translate into modest absolute gains for India.

- ANI