India Must Brace for All Outcomes as Bangladesh Elections Approach

"As the Bangladesh elections approach, India must be prepared for all options and ensure it can foster strategic trust and counter adverse influence in Dhaka, with the broader strategic aim of making Yunus's leadership recognise the heavy costs of ignoring New Delhi. This means India must remain open to all scenarios, as room to operate is gradually shrinking, especially after the new wave of violence," a report in India Narrative highlighted.

Pointing to the recent anti-India wave and strengthening of the Islamist forces in Bangladesh - especially the Jammatis storming the streets, targetting media institutions, Hindus, and Awami League offices in the three months leading up to the February 12 elections - analyst Srijan Sharma stated that the developments mirrored similar tactics adopted in 2001.

During the run-up to the 2001 elections in Bangladesh, he wrote, Dhaka witnessed pre-election violence by supporters of the BNP-Jammat alliance, which triggered widespread violence against Hindus and Awami League party workers.

"This created an anti-Awami League wave in the 2001 electoral environment, indirectly setting the stage for an anti-India wave as well. The tone was almost set, and Sheikh Hasina was voted out of power, while the Islamic elements-backed party BNP came into power. In 2001, the Jammati-E Islammi party, sharing a deep ideological relationship with Pakistan, played an active role in inciting mobs and targetted violence against Hindus and the Awami League," Sharma wrote in India Narrative.

"During the BNP regime, especially post-elections, the violence continued, mainly in the southeastern region of Dhaka, targetting Hindus. Most notably, after the BNP takeover of power, ULFA-1 activities in the North East also saw a noticeable increase, as the BNP government allowed ULFA-1 to operate from the Bangaldesh borders and even gave them safe havens. The infamous Chittangong Arms Haul in 2004 showed how Bangaldesh was effectively creating a breeding environment for anti-India activities," he said.

A similar, but more hard and direct, anti-India wave has been witnessed in Bangladesh this time around also with Pakistan reportedly having a big role to play in the pre-electoral violence.

"There is a strong possibility that Pakistan's intelligence agency, ISI, might have sponsored or carried out the assassination of student leader Osman Bin Hadi. To further complicate the security scenario for India, Pakistan is planning to rehabilitate ULFA-I Chief Paresh Baruah in Bangladesh, if some reports are to be believed," the report mentioned.

Bangladesh's tilt towards Pakistan, wrote Sharma, is quite visible as Islamabad deepens its strategic presence at the political and diplomatic levels in Dhaka.

Citing the four high-level visits by Pakistani military and intelligence officials to Dhaka last year, the report states that, ever since former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted, the Yunus government has been busy cultivating deeper ties with Pakistan.

- IANS