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India to See Above-Normal Rainfall in May, Mixed Heat Trends as El Nino Nears: IMD

India is likely to experience above-normal rainfall in May, with the IMD predicting precipitation at over 110% of the long period average. Daytime temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal across large parts, but heatwave days are anticipated in specific regions like the Himalayas foothills and east coast. The evolving El Nino conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase could influence weather patterns. This rainfall is expected to aid kharif preparations but may pose risks to late rabi crops and harvesting operations.

Key Points: India May Rain Above Normal, Mixed Heat: IMD

  • Above-normal rainfall likely across India in May at 110% of LPA
  • Mixed temperature trends with normal to below-normal maximums in many areas
  • Heatwave days expected in foothills, east coast, Gujarat, and Maharashtra
  • El Nino developing, neutral IOD transitioning to positive phase
2 min read

India likely to see above-normal rainfall in May, mixed heat trends as El Nino signal strengthens: IMD

India likely to see above-normal rainfall in May at 110% of LPA. IMD forecasts mixed temperature trends with El Nino signal strengthening.

"Rainfall across the country is 'most likely to be above normal' at over 110 per cent of the long period average. - India Meteorological Department"

New Delhi, May 1

India is likely to witness a mixed temperature pattern along with wetter-than-usual conditions in May, with the India Meteorological Department indicating that rainfall across the country is "most likely to be above normal" at over 110 per cent of the long period average.

In its monthly outlook for May 2026, the IMD said maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal across large parts of the country, offering some relief from extreme heat. However, above-normal daytime temperatures are likely in southern peninsular India, parts of the northeast and northwest India.

Night temperatures, meanwhile, are expected to stay warmer than usual in most regions. Some pockets of northwest and central India, along with adjoining peninsular and northeastern areas, may still record normal to below-normal minimum temperatures.

The IMD has also flagged an increase in heatwave days in specific regions, particularly along the foothills of the Himalayas, parts of the east coast, and in Gujarat and Maharashtra, even as the broader temperature outlook remains moderated.

Rainfall is expected to be favourable across much of the country, with normal to above-normal precipitation likely in most regions. However, parts of east and northeast India and east-central India may receive below-normal rainfall.

The outlook comes against the backdrop of evolving oceanic conditions. The IMD said neutral conditions in the Pacific are gradually transitioning towards El Nino, with climate models indicating its development during the southwest monsoon season. At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevail, with a positive phase likely to emerge towards the latter part of the monsoon.

The combined effect of these climate drivers could influence rainfall distribution and temperature patterns in the coming months.

The IMD noted that while relatively lower daytime temperatures in many regions may support harvesting of late rabi crops, higher night temperatures and localised heat stress in some regions could affect crop yields, particularly during critical growth stages.

Above-normal rainfall is expected to improve soil moisture and aid preparations for the upcoming kharif season, though excess rain in some areas may disrupt harvesting operations and increase the risk of crop damage due to waterlogging and fungal infections.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
Mixed trends indeed. In Bangalore, we're already feeling the warmer nights they mentioned. No AC needed in afternoons but fan is running full at 2 AM! El Nino signals strengthening so close to monsoon is a bit scary though. Let's hope the forecasts hold.
M
Michael C
As someone who moved from London to Chennai last year, I'm still getting used to Indian weather patterns. The IMD reports are quite detailed. Fingers crossed that the above-normal rainfall doesn't turn into flooding like last year in Kerala. Good to see proactive advisories though.
R
Rohit P
Farmers in Maharashtra will be watching this closely. Last year's uneven monsoon hit onion and sugarcane yields badly. The heatwave warnings for Gujarat and foothills are worrying too. IMD needs to issue district-level alerts, not just state-level. Ground-level planning matters.
S
Sarah B
Interesting to see the science behind this collaboration of El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole. I'm a climate researcher, and these mixed signals make accurate prediction tricky but IMD is doing a decent job. Let's see if the positive IOD actually moderates the El Nino impact during monsoon.
N
Nisha Z
From Delhi - we desperately need that above-normal rainfall! The groundwater levels are critically low. But the warm nights they mention are already unbearable in June-August. Yaar, it's already May and no relief yet. At least daytime temps might be normal for a change.

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