India's Economy Resilient: Can Grow Above 7% Even With $100 Oil

The industry body noted that over the past two and a half decades, India has successfully absorbed multiple oil price shocks without derailing its growth trajectory.

Data analysed for the period from 2000-01 to 2025-26 shows that some of India's strongest growth years coincided with moderate to high crude oil prices. For instance, the economy grew 7.6 per cent in 2022-23 when the Indian crude basket averaged $93 per barrel, and maintained a robust 7.2 per cent growth in 2023-24 with oil prices at $82 per barrel.

According to Nirmal Kumar Minda, President, Assocham, India's growth story continues to be driven by strong domestic consumption, which fuels supply-side expansion through increased manufacturing, job creation and rising incomes, creating a virtuous cycle.

He added that sustained government spending on infrastructure, particularly through higher capital expenditure, has played a crucial role in cushioning the economy from external shocks.

The analysis also highlighted that even during 2011-14, when crude oil prices remained above $100 per barrel, India's GDP growth held steady between 5.2 per cent and 6.4 per cent. In contrast, the sharpest contraction of -5.78 per cent in 2020-21 occurred when oil prices were relatively low, underscoring that the downturn was driven by the COVID-19 pandemic rather than energy costs.

Looking ahead, growth projections remain optimistic. Estimates by the Reserve Bank of India peg GDP growth at around 6.9 per cent for 2026-27, broadly in line with long-term trends. However, Assocham expects growth to exceed 7 per cent, supported by strong consumption, stable exports and rising capital investment.

- IANS