Global Steel Prices Surge Led by Brazil; China Output Under Pressure

Global steel prices rise across major markets; China output stays under pressure: Goldman Sachs

New Delhi, May 17

In its latest "Global Steel: The Steel Market Barometer - May Update" report, Goldman Sachs said average hot rolled coil (HRC) prices increased across almost all major regions in April, led by Brazil with a 10 per cent month-on-month rise, followed by Japan at 6.5 per cent and China at 2.9 per cent.

"On a YTD basis, Brazil's HRC steel price performance has been the strongest in our sample (+21%), followed by the US (+15%) with other regions also showing price increases from 6%-13%," the report said.

Global long steel prices also saw gains during April. According to Goldman Sachs, Brazil again recorded the sharpest increase in rebar prices at 12 per cent month-on-month, followed by Europe at 6.9 per cent and the Black Sea region at 6.1 per cent.

On the supply side, the report noted that China's steel production continued to contract on a yearly basis in the first two weeks of May. Goldman Sachs said China's steel output was down 3.2 per cent year-on-year compared to the same period last year.

Commenting on China's steel sector, Goldman Sachs said, "On the industry level, while the anti-involution effort and long-term capacity cut plan for the Chinese steel sector remain intact, we see delayed execution in 2026E in terms of both capacity and production discipline."

The report also highlighted diverging trends across major steel-producing economies.

In Europe, crude steel production increased 16 per cent month-on-month in March, though it remained down 3 per cent both year-on-year and on a year-to-date basis.

In the United States, average weekly steel production rose 3 per cent month-on-month in April, while utilisation rates averaged 79.6 per cent, improving both sequentially and annually.

India, meanwhile, continued to remain one of the fastest-growing steel markets globally. Goldman Sachs said India's crude steel production growth accelerated to 11 per cent year-on-year in March, compared with 10 per cent growth in the year-to-date period and 7 per cent growth in February.

The report further noted that infrastructure activity in China remained relatively strong despite weakness in the property market. Goldman Sachs said infrastructure investment excluding water and power supply rose 8.9 per cent year-on-year during the first three months of 2026.

According to the report, manufacturing activity in China improved in March, while construction activity weakened, reflecting uneven demand trends within the broader steel-consuming sectors.

Goldman Sachs also projected relatively stable steel prices across key global markets through the rest of 2026, with US steel prices expected to remain stronger than those in Europe, China and Brazil.

— ANI