Trump's Iran Endgame Unpredictable Amid Strait of Hormuz Shadow Boxing

Former diplomat Mahesh Sachdev describes the Iran-West Asia conflict as a "game of shadow boxing" with no definitive conclusion. He highlights parallel moves, with the UN Security Council discussing a resolution to pressure Iran while Tehran negotiates a navigation protocol with Oman. Sachdev states that President Trump's endgame remains as unpredictable as the military campaign, ranging from a deal to an abrupt exit. The situation involves intense international pressure from nearly 40 countries alongside unilateral claims by the US.

Key Points: Trump's Iran Endgame Unpredictable, Says Ex-Diplomat

  • UNSC debates Bahraini draft on Strait of Hormuz
  • Iran plans navigation protocol with Oman
  • Trump's endgame options remain wide open
  • Conflict began and could end abruptly
  • 40 countries apply pressure in London talks
3 min read

"Endgame as unpredictable as campaign": Ex-diplomat Sachdev on Trump's endgoal on Iran

Former diplomat Mahesh Sachdev calls Iran situation a "game of shadow boxing" as UNSC debates resolution and Iran plans protocol with Oman.

"So all told, I think there is a huge game of shadow boxing going on. And this game has no definitive conclusion. - Mahesh Sachdev"

New Delhi, April 3

Former diplomat Mahesh Sachdev on Friday described the evolving situation around Iran amid the West Asia conflict as a "game of shadow boxing", stating that the endgame of US President Donald Trump remains as unpredictable as the military campaign against the Islamic Republic itself.

Speaking to ANI on the recent geopolitical developments in the region, Sachdev pointed to parallel diplomatic and strategic manoeuvres involving the United Nations Security Council, regional actors, and global powers.

He noted that while the UNSC is discussing a Bahraini-backed draft resolution aimed at compelling Iran to reopen the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz and halt attacks, Tehran has simultaneously announced a potential protocol with Oman regarding the navigability of the same waterway.

According to Sachdev, these moves indicate Iran's attempt to deflect mounting international pressure, including deliberations by nearly 40 countries meeting in London alongside UN-level discussions.

"While the United Nations Security Council is discussing a Bahraini draft to compel Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and stop attacking, Iran has announced that it's going to have a protocol with Oman about the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz. So they are trying to deflect that kind of pressure coming from 40 countries meeting in London and the United Nations Security Council putting pressure on them through a resolution," he said.

"So all told, I think there is a huge game of shadow boxing going on. And this game has no definitive conclusion," Sachdev added.

He further observed that Trump's approach leaves multiple possibilities open -- ranging from securing a ceasefire deal to exiting without any agreement -- and also referenced the US President's unilateral claims of having significantly degraded Iran's military capabilities, including its nuclear infrastructure, missile systems, navy, air force, and air defences.

"As Mr Trump keeps the option of having a ceasefire deal or leaving without any ceasefire deal or any deal whatsoever with Iran, having unilaterally claimed to obliterate Iranian infrastructure, nuclear establishments, missiles, navy, air force, and air defences. So all put together, the endgame is as unpredictable as the campaign itself has been and raises the prospect of this beginning the same way ending the same way as abruptly as it had begun," the former diplomat said.

His remarks come amid parallel development on the West Asia conflict, where the UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on Friday (US time) on a draft resolution proposed by Bahrain that seeks to authorise member states to use "all defensive means necessary" to ensure safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz amid the conflict, as reported by CNN.

Bahrain, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council and has been under fire from Iran amid the conflict, urged an international response to threats against global navigation routes.

On the other hand, Iran is in the final stages of preparing a draft protocol aimed at establishing a new navigation regime in the Strait of Hormuz and plans to initiate discussions with Oman for a joint framework, as stated by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi during an interview with Sputnik.

During the interview, Gharibabadi stated, "The draft of this protocol is currently in the final stages of preparation. Once we have it ready, we will begin negotiations with Oman so that we can draft a joint protocol."

He indicated that the proposed protocol is intended to regulate navigation in the strategically significant Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran seeking cooperation from Oman to develop a mutually agreed mechanism, as reported by Sputnik.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
This is so worrying. Another conflict in West Asia will send oil prices through the roof and hurt our economy badly. The government needs to have a clear plan. We can't just be spectators when our pocketbooks are on the line. 🇮🇳
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Michael C
Living in Mumbai, I see the direct impact of oil prices on everything from auto-rickshaw fares to vegetable costs. The unpredictability Sachdev mentions is the scariest part. Trump's foreign policy has always been a rollercoaster, but now the whole world has to ride it.
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Rohit P
Iran playing the Oman card is a smart diplomatic move. They're trying to show they have regional partners. India has good relations with both Oman and Iran. Maybe we can play a constructive role here? Our foreign policy should be more proactive, not just reactive.
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Sarah B
While I appreciate the expert analysis, I wish the article had included more on what this means for Indian foreign policy specifically. We always talk about energy security, but what are our actual strategic options if things go south? The Chabahar port investment alone makes this critical for us.
K
Karthik V
The Bahrain resolution at UNSC is interesting. They are a close US ally. This feels like building legal justification for more action. India has to tread carefully. We have millions of expats in the Gulf. Their safety and remittances are also at stake. Complex situation indeed.

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